"Emerging markets guru" Mobius: Absolutely not buying gold right now, unless it plunges by 20%! Optimistic about the Chinese market.

As global gold prices continue to hit record highs, veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius has issued an unusual warning. He believes gold is currently unattractive, and points out that if the US dollar strengthens, gold prices may face significant pressure.

On January 16, he stated clearly in an interview: “I would absolutely not buy gold at current levels.” He added that he would only consider reallocating if gold prices pulled back roughly 20% from current highs. Mobius analyzed that as expectations for the US economic outlook strengthen, the dollar is likely to rebound, which could diminish gold’s safe-haven appeal.

With more than forty years of experience in emerging market research and investment management, Mobius is recognized as one of the most successful investors in the field. His career has won him many accolades: in 1994, CNBC named him “Business Fund Manager of the Year”; in 1999, the Carson Group listed him as one of the “Top 10 Fund Managers of the 20th Century”; and in 2011, Bloomberg Markets magazine included him among the “50 Most Influential People in the World.”

It is noteworthy that Mobius voiced this cautious view just as gold recorded its strongest annual gain since 1979. Although factors that drove last year’s gold rally, such as central bank gold purchases and declining interest rates, still persist and most investors remain optimistic, his contrarian judgment underscores current divisions in market opinion.

Drivers Behind Gold’s Rally

Gold posted its strongest annual gain since 1979 in 2025, driven mainly by three factors: continued gold buying by global central banks, inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and interest rate cuts in major economies. Additionally, “devaluation trades” have also supported gold prices, as investors, worried about rising debt, have cut holdings in government bonds and related currencies, turning instead to physical assets such as gold. Bloomberg data shows these factors continued to play a role in 2025, driving gold to fresh record highs.

Despite Mobius’s cautious warning, most investors remain optimistic about gold’s prospects. The market generally believes that the main factors driving last year's gold rally—including central bank gold buying, expectations for looser monetary policy, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—will continue into 2026.

This divergence reflects differing market views on the dollar’s trajectory and the outlook for the US economy: Mobius’s view is based on expectations that the US economy may strengthen, while bullish investors are more focused on long-term structural factors such as global monetary easing and debt risks.

Optimistic About Opportunities in Asian Stock Markets

In addition to his cautious attitude towards gold, Mobius also shared his views on Asian stock markets. He stated that China, India, and South Korea are the most globally attractive stock markets in the region.

Mobius believes that the rally in Chinese stocks is sustainable, mainly due to the country’s ongoing breakthroughs in technology. He pointed out:

“China’s goal is to catch up with the US in tech fields such as artificial intelligence, so capital is flowing towards technology rather than traditional consumer sectors.”

He maintains a bullish view on the Indian market as well, due to the government’s continued spending and investment, especially its active positioning in tech-related fields.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions herein apply to their own circumstances. Investments made accordingly are at one’s own risk.