"Energy war" escalates! Israeli military bombed Iran's largest gas field, oil prices surged—Is Israel fully "controlling" Trump?

Israel’s unprecedented bombing of Iran’s core natural gas field not only instantly triggered panic over crude oil supply shortages, but also forced the market to reassess the true power structure of the US-Israel alliance amid the current Middle East upheaval—who really controls the situation, the US or Israel?

The incident began with the attack on the South Pars gas field. On Wednesday, March 18, local time, the energy red line of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflict was concretely breached. According to CCTV News, the Israeli Defense Forces attacked facilities related to the South Pars gas field in Iran’s southern Bushehr province.

CCTV quoted Israeli officials as saying that the facility processes about 40% of Iran’s natural gas and indicated that the attack was “coordinated with the US.” This is the first direct military strike on Iran’s upstream oil and gas assets since the outbreak of the current round of conflict.

In response to the attack, Xinhua News reported that Iran’s National Gas Company confirmed on the 18th that facilities related to the South Pars gas field were attacked by hostile forces, causing a fire. However, the statement also objectively emphasized that there were no casualties, the fire was completely extinguished, and gas production continues safely, with national energy supply maintained as normal.

The market’s reaction was extremely violent. Brent crude oil soared more than 6% intraday, approaching the $110/barrel threshold.

Energy War: Why is this bombing extremely dangerous?

Before discussing the game between the US and Israel, it’s crucial to understand one core fact: South Pars is not only Iran’s trump card but also the “Achilles’ heel” of the global energy market.

The South Pars gas field is currently the world’s largest known natural gas reserve, shared by Iran and Qatar. It is not only the basis of Iran’s domestic power generation, industrial feedstock, and winter heating, but also an important gas source for countries like Turkey.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Financial, pointedly highlighted the problem: “If millions of barrels in production capacity are destroyed, the impact will be huge, because even if the war ends, inventories can’t be replenished.”

To illustrate, attacking oil tankers or blocking straits in the past was like blocking the “pipes” delivering water—once unblocked, water continues to flow. But bombing upstream gas fields and LNG facilities is like blowing up the “well” itself.

Once the “well” is destroyed, it takes years to restore. Historical experience after the 2003 Iraq war shows that even with sufficient funds, rebuilding energy production facilities often takes far longer than expected, directly pushing up the long-term risk premium for energy supply.

With core upstream assets bombed, Iran’s retaliation sparked a chain reaction.

According to CCTV News, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Tansiri, warned that US-related oil facilities and military bases are now being treated equally and will be targeted with full force. Iran even directly issued a “strike list,” including key refineries and gas fields in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Iraq’s electricity supply has already been severely impacted—due to the cut-off of Iranian gas, Iraq instantly lost more than 3.1 GW of installed power capacity.

Umud Shokri, a senior visiting scholar at George Mason University, analyzed that shifting targets from military facilities to core energy production areas signifies that geopolitical conflict has officially evolved into an economic and energy war of attrition. Israel seeks to pressure Iran by attacking its economic core, but the consequence is that interconnected energy systems become extremely fragile.

Who is calling the shots? Is Israel fully “controlling” Trump?

This is the deeper logic most market participants and investors are concerned about in this incident. If bombing energy facilities is the “surface,” then the power structure between the US and Israel in this attack is the “core.”

Who is really leading the situation in this attack?

According to CCTV News quoting US officials, Trump was informed in advance of Israel’s plan to attack the South Pars gas field and expressed support, intending to send a message to Iran in “response to its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.”

US officials also revealed that Trump believed “Iran has received the message,” so he currently opposes further attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Trump stated he “does not want any further attacks on Iran’s energy facilities.”

However, the plot soon took a highly dramatic turn. According to the latest report from Xinhua News, US President Trump announced publicly on social media on the 18th that the US had “no knowledge whatsoever” of Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil and gas facilities, and stressed that Qatar did not participate in any way.

Trump stated that Israel would not conduct further attacks on the “extremely significant and valuable” South Pars gas field unless Iran decides to attack the “very innocent” Qatar during the incident. Trump also threatened that if Qatar’s LNG facilities are again attacked by Iran, the US “will destroy the entire South Pars gas field with an unprecedented show of force against Iran.”

This public statement is in sharp conflict with earlier reports that “US officials” claimed Trump was informed and supportive. So are US officials lying, or is Trump desperately distancing himself?

This huge policy uncertainty, and the severe division among US high-level statements, is precisely the source of market panic. On overseas social media, financial KOLs, geopolitical observers, and netizens are fiercely debating “who is controlling whom between the US and Israel.”

Hypothesis One: Tail wagging the dog, the US is now “reverse controlled” by Israel?

Many analysts believe that Trump’s “no knowledge” exactly shows Washington has lost control of the situation and is now the passive party footing the bill.

• Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas commented: There are two possibilities for today’s attack on South Pars: 1) Israel informed the US, and Washington either acquiesced or did not object: (That’s) bad. 2) Israel informed the US, and Washington failed to persuade its war partner to stop the attack: this is very, very bad. Who decides on escalation: the US or Israel?

• Well-known KOL Waqas Inayat bluntly said: “We are witnessing a ‘very, very bad’ script. If Washington has lost leverage over its ‘junior partner (Israel),’ we’re entering an unpredictable, rogue escalation phase. The global energy market is now decided by a “tail wagging the dog.”

• User Ammanichanda added: “Israel has unimaginable influence over the US. They can act as they please. This is not an exaggeration.”

• Netizen Markk also believes: “At this stage, I am almost certain US foreign policy has been hijacked by Israel.”

From the market’s perspective, if Israel is an “unbridled wild horse” untamed by the US, then Trump’s statement that he doesn't want further attacks is simply not credible, and risks of ongoing devastation to Middle Eastern energy facilities will be fully priced in by the market.

Hypothesis Two: Interests highly bound, Israel is just America’s “bad cop”?

Another viewpoint argues not to be misled by appearances—the US remains the ultimate mastermind.

• KOL QuantCappers cited core data to refute: “Israel is America’s vassal. The US provides $4 billion in military aid to Israel annually, 10% of Israel’s entire military budget. ‘Who holds the purse holds the power.’”

• User Ant-i’s analysis is very incisive: “It’s the dog wagging its tail, not the tail wagging the dog. In this scenario, ‘the tail (Israel)’ serves as a convenient scapegoat. Via this method, America can act without restraint and deflect public anger elsewhere.”

• User EndGame2030 posed a soul-searching question: “Washington wants us to suspect Israel, but is that real? Is Israel just a ‘bad cop’ doing the dirty work for its patron?”

Hypothesis Three: A carefully choreographed political and market double act?

Some analysts point out this attack is a very precise “political bargaining chip.”

Analyst Shashank Joshi quoted Israel Channel 12’s report: “A senior Israeli official said Israel’s operational support was to transmit America’s message. ‘Either… the Strait of Hormuz is opened and the mines are cleared… or the entire (gas) facility will be destroyed, and so will other facilities.’”

This explains Trump’s attitude: bomb the gas field not to destroy, but for extreme pressure. If Iran obediently opens the Strait of Hormuz, the energy war ends; if Iran stays tough, Trump may light the green light at any time.

In summary, the bombing of South Pars gas field pushed oil prices near $110 not only because of the real risk of millions of barrels a day being cut off, but because the market saw “energy war” tactics with no bottom line becoming normalized.

Whether the US is secretly masterminding or Israel “controls” US decision-making, the result points to one fact: the Persian Gulf's dense energy network has become a Damocles sword hanging over the global economy. As long as this fragile nerve remains taut, the energy market’s super volatility will persist long-term.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risk, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any single user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk.