Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario: Energy may really not be sufficient.

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to impact global energy markets, and Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned in an interview with the UK’s Financial Times that this energy shock will be “long-term,” and that the EU is evaluating “all possible options,” including fuel rationing and further use of strategic reserves.

He made it clear that “for certain more critical products, we expect the situation to deteriorate further in the coming weeks.” This is the toughest public statement so far from an EU official during this latest crisis.

The aviation industry is already feeling the pressure, with several airlines expressing grave concerns about the outlook for jet fuel supplies. The continued rise in energy prices and worries over long-term supply are being transmitted throughout the European economy.

The Strait of Hormuz Nearly Shut Down, Energy Market in Turmoil

The Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important energy transport channels—is now nearly closed, while energy infrastructure in the Gulf region continues to be attacked, throwing global energy markets into turmoil and causing oil prices to surge.

Dan Jørgensen characterized the current situation as a “long-term crisis,” stating that “energy prices will remain high for a long period of time.” He pointed out that the EU is not yet in a “supply security crisis,” but Brussels is preparing contingency plans to deal with the “structural, long-term” effects of the conflict.

“The language and tone we are using now is more serious than in the early stages of the crisis,” he said:

“This is indeed our assessment—it is going to be a protracted situation, and countries need to ensure they have adequate reserves.”

Rationing and Strategic Reserves: Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario

As for specific countermeasures, Dan Jørgensen stated that the EU is assessing the possibility of imposing rationing on critical products like jet fuel and diesel, though he stressed that at present it “hasn’t yet reached” the stage where such measures need to be enacted. “It’s better to prepare than to regret it later,” he said.

On strategic reserves, Dan Jørgensen did not rule out tapping into oil reserves again “if the situation worsens further.” Last month, EU member states participated in the largest-ever strategic oil reserve release to curb price increases.

He refused to reveal the EU’s “precise judgment” on when reserves might be released again, but stated, “We take this very seriously—if necessary, we are ready to act at any time.” “We need to keep options open. If this crisis does last as long as I expect, we’ll also need these tools in the later stages,” he added, “but the timing must be precise, and the scale must match the situation.”

Relaxation of Fuel Standards Under Discussion, but No Changes Yet

Discussions around regulatory standards for jet fuel have also been put on the agenda. There is a difference between EU and US jet fuel freezing point standards—the EU’s is minus 47°C, while the US’s is minus 40°C. When asked whether the EU was considering relaxing standards to allow more imports from the US, or permitting a higher ethanol blend in automotive fuels, Dan Jørgensen said that currently “no amendments or changes have been made to the current regulations.”

However, he did leave room for adjustment:

“We are examining all possibilities. The more severe the situation gets, the more we will need to consider regulatory tools.”

On natural gas policy, Dan Jørgensen reiterated that there will be no legislative changes this year to halt imports of Russian liquefied natural gas. He said the EU would rely more on additional supplies from the US and other partners, on the grounds that these suppliers operate in a “free market” environment and are thus acceptable.

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