Europe submits revised peace plan seeking to grant Ukraine NATO Article 5-like security guarantees

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According to insiders cited by CCTV News and according to documents, the UK, France, and Germany have jointly drafted and submitted a revised "peace plan" aimed at countering the previous US proposal, with a central focus on providing substantial security guarantees for Ukraine.

The proposal explicitly rejects the clauses in the earlier US plan regarding restrictions on the size of Kyiv’s armed forces and territorial concessions, marking a significant transatlantic divide over the path to ending the conflict.

This document, prepared for the Geneva talks, proposes that Ukraine should receive joint defense security guarantees from the US, similar to NATO’s Article 5. According to Bloomberg, European allies insist that any discussion on territorial exchanges can take place only after the war has stopped along the current contact line, and they strongly oppose ceding any eastern territories not occupied by Russia as per Moscow’s demands. This shows that Europe is seeking to secure a more favorable security baseline for Kyiv under the quick-deal framework pushed by President Trump.

On the economic level, the proposal also fundamentally clashes with the US plan. Europe opposes the American proposal to invest the frozen Russian assets in the West (mainly within the EU) for profit, insisting that these assets must be used for Ukraine’s reconstruction and compensation until Russia has fully paid for war damages. This hardened stance means that the so-called "peace dividend" investors are watching for as well as the path to lifting sanctions will face more complicated negotiations, and the market’s expectation of a swift resolution to geopolitical risks may need to be recalibrated.

NATO Article 5-Like Defense Commitment

According to insiders cited by Bloomberg, the counter-proposal drafted by European allies and to be submitted to the US in Switzerland puts the core demand as requiring the US to offer a security guarantee that "mirrors" NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause. This means that if an agreement is reached, any further aggression against Ukraine would likely trigger a direct US defense obligation.

Furthermore, the document sets a clear bottom line for Ukraine’s military capabilities after the war. According to CCTV, the document proposes that the Ukrainian military’s peacetime personnel ceiling should be set at 800,000. This figure is significantly higher than the 600,000 limit previously proposed by the US.

Insiders told Bloomberg that the higher personnel limit is negotiable, but Ukraine had previously indicated that maintaining at least 800,000 troops is necessary for peacetime defense capability.

Territorial Negotiation Baselines and Ceasefire Conditions

In this plan, the positions of Europe and Ukraine on territorial issues are even tougher. The document clearly states that "territorial exchange negotiations shall start from the contact line" and insists that any discussion with Russia on territorial exchanges can only take place after the conflict has completely stopped along the current defensive lines.

Europe explicitly rejected the US suggestion that certain regions should be recognized in advance as "de facto Russian territory". According to Bloomberg, the US proposal previously required Ukraine to withdraw from parts of eastern Donbas not fully occupied by Russia and designate those areas as internationally recognized neutral non-military buffer zones under Russian control. Under the US plan, Moscow would also receive de facto recognition of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk.

In response, European leaders and G7 members Canada and Japan released a statement during the G20 Summit in South Africa, refuting the notion that Ukraine’s borders can be reduced or its armed forces be restricted.

Disputes over Frozen Asset Management and Economic Compensation

On the issue of postwar reconstruction funding and lifting sanctions, the proposals from Europe and the US show significant divergences of interest. According to CCTV, the US plan calls for investing $100 billion of frozen Russian funds in "US-led reconstruction and investment in Ukraine" with the US retaining 50% of the profits and the remaining funds going to an independent "US-Russia investment vehicle."

Europe firmly rejects the above proposal. The revised plan requires that Russian sovereign assets must remain frozen until Russia pays compensation for Ukraine’s losses. The document emphasizes that Ukraine will receive full reconstruction and economic compensation, and frozen assets are the key funding pool for this.

Bloomberg reports that the European proposal also suggests that if Russia complies with the agreement, other sanctions would be lifted in stages, and Russia would be allowed to gradually reintegrate into the global economic system. At the same time, the US would also receive appropriate compensation for providing strong security guarantees.

Geneva Game and Positions of All Sides

Currently, the national security advisors of the US, Ukraine, and European countries are scheduled to meet on Sunday in Geneva, with the US proposal drafted with Russia’s participation.

Although there are obvious differences, diplomatic engagement continues. Ukrainian President Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on social media platform X that he had met with the national security advisors of the UK, France, and Germany and described the meetings as "very constructive." He confirmed that the next round of talks will be with the US delegation.

Insiders told Bloomberg that, aside from the core security and territorial disputes, many other clauses in the US proposal—such as the return of all detained persons (including children)—are acceptable to Europeans. These sources added that the plan should include family reunification programs as well as relief and compensation clauses for war victims.

According to previous expectations, any agreement reached would be implemented under US supervision and guaranteed by a peace committee chaired by Trump. However, with Europe now submitting a revised proposal, the final form of any agreement remains highly uncertain.

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