European Aviation Industry: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be fully reopened within three weeks, aviation fuel will face a "systemic" shortage.

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The European aviation industry is approaching a critical point of a fuel crisis. The industry association representing EU airports has issued a warning: if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume stable passage within three weeks, Europe will face a “systemic” shortage of aviation fuel, with the peak summer travel season being the first to bear the brunt.

According to the Financial Times, the Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has sent a letter to EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, expressing "growing concerns" over the supply situation of aviation fuel and the EU-level monitoring and response mechanisms.

The letter explicitly warns: “If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume any significant and stable passage within the next three weeks, a systemic aviation fuel shortage will become a reality for the EU.”

The letter also points out that the peak summer travel season in Europe is approaching, when aviation transport is crucial to the overall tourism ecosystem many EU economies depend on, which further intensifies the sense of urgency in the industry.

Fuel prices have surged dramatically. On Thursday, the Northwest Europe benchmark price for aviation fuel closed at $1,573 per ton, nearly double the pre-Iran conflict price of around $750 per ton. Several European airlines have said their current inventories could last for several weeks, but suppliers cannot guarantee stable deliveries beyond May.

Supply Chain Pressure Continues to Mount

The Strait of Hormuz is the transit route for about 40% of global aviation fuel; its accessibility directly affects global supply patterns. ACI Europe notes in the letter that current aviation fuel reserves are declining, while “military activity’s impact on demand” further intensifies supply pressure.

Europe has not yet seen widespread shortages, but some regions are already showing signs of localized strain.

Last weekend, four airports in Italy imposed usage restrictions on aviation fuel after a key supplier experienced a disruption. Meanwhile, some Asian countries such as Vietnam have already started rationing aviation fuel.

ACI Europe calls in the letter for the EU to establish a comprehensive supply monitoring mechanism, stating: “Currently, there is no unified EU-level system for the review, evaluation, and monitoring of aviation fuel production and supply.”

Airlines Begin Cutting Capacity

The surge in fuel costs has already forced airlines to scale back their operations.

Delta Air Lines announced this week it will reduce capacity by 3.5%, including some midday and night flights on weekdays, to offset the impact of high fuel prices. It estimates an additional $2 billion in fuel costs from April to June.

Air New Zealand has also cut some flights citing higher fuel costs. LOT Polish Airlines announced plans to scale back some routes with lower occupancy rates, and expects to raise ticket prices.

Risks of Economic Shock Cannot Be Overlooked

ACI Europe further warned in its letter about the potential chain reaction of systemic shortages: “Once supply becomes tight, it will seriously disrupt airport operations and air connectivity, causing severe economic shocks to affected regions and all of Europe.”

This risk is especially sensitive on the eve of the peak summer travel season. Many European economies are highly dependent on tourism; if aviation fuel shortages lead to mass flight cancellations, the impact will go far beyond the aviation industry itself, extending to hotels, retail, and local economies.

The core demand of the industry at present is for the EU to establish a unified supply monitoring and coordination mechanism as soon as possible, in order to win a window of response before the situation deteriorates further.

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