Even resorting to blocking the Strait of Hormuz, has Trump run out of options on the Iran issue?

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Trump announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a drastic move that has unsettled global energy markets and also reflects Washington's real predicament of running out of options on the Iran issue.

According to CCTV News, the U.S. Central Command announced on the 12th that starting from 10 a.m. EST on April 13, it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, covering all Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. This is Trump’s most aggressive step since launching military action against Iran at the end of February this year. According to Lloyd's List, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt immediately after the blockade order, with at least two ships that were leaving the Strait turning back.

However, this tough measure has faced instant opposition. Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani called the move "utterly ridiculous", and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any military vessel approaching the Strait of Hormuz, for any reason, would be regarded as violating the ceasefire agreement and met with a tough response. The UK has explicitly announced it will not participate in the blockade.

Jennifer Kavanagh, Director of Military Analysis at the Washington think tank Defense Priorities, said bluntly that the decision "fully shows how frustrated the President is, and how few options he has left." Analysts warn that a full blockade of the Strait will send oil prices soaring, increase international pressure on the U.S., and endanger the fragile ceasefire agreement reached just two weeks ago. Iran could also block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would create new troubles for the U.S.

Breakdown of Negotiations, Blockade Order Issued

The blockade decision was issued quickly after negotiations in Pakistan failed.

Vice President Vance hosted marathon negotiations with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday, but ultimately returned empty-handed. A U.S. official revealed that Iran had rejected a series of U.S. core demands, including guaranteeing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, dismantling uranium enrichment facilities, handing over enriched uranium stockpiles, and halting funding for regional proxy forces.

Meanwhile, Trump himself was in Miami Saturday night watching a UFC fight, and his response to the failed negotiations was delayed until Sunday—a marine blockade was announced. In an interview, he stated: "We are going for a complete blockade; we won’t let Iran earn money selling oil. You saw what we did to Venezuela; this time, it will be similar but on a much bigger scale."

According to U.S. officials, after jointly designing the blockade plan with Trump and his team, Vance’s camp hopes that Iran will be more willing to compromise in negotiations under this pressure.

The Venezuela Template Is Hard to Replicate

While Trump is explicitly using Venezuela as a reference, analysts are largely skeptical of the comparison.

In Venezuela, the U.S. combined a maritime blockade with military action and eventually struck sitting President Nicolás Maduro.

But Iran’s situation is entirely different. After successive assassinations of Iran’s supreme leaders, the remaining leadership has shown no will to compromise. The Islamic Republic has been established for nearly half a century, its political system is deeply entrenched, and it has been preparing for asymmetric warfare for decades.

Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and former U.S. official, points out that Trump’s threat of blockade won’t worry Iran in the short term—Tehran believes pressure from closing the Strait to the global economy far outweighs its own losses. "It doesn’t matter to Iran; instead, it extends its grip on the global economy," he said. "Iran could also block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating new troubles for the US."

Execution Faces Hidden Reefs

Even at the operational level, the blockade order faces major difficulties. The U.S. Central Command statement says the blockade will "apply equally to all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports and their coastal areas", while clarifying it will not impede ships bound for non-Iranian ports from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

But Jennifer Kavanagh raised a series of tricky enforcement questions: "Suppose a Gulf-state or French ship pays a fee to Iran for passage, what will the U.S. do? Seize an allied tanker?"

Britain’s refusal to participate further weakens the coalition foundation for this action. According to Xinhua, quoting Sky News, a UK government spokesperson said Britain will continue to support reopening the Strait of Hormuz, is working with France and others to build an alliance, but will not join the blockade.

Democratic Senator Mark Warner was even more direct in questioning the logic in a CNN interview: "I don’t see how blockading the Strait would force Iran to open it. I don’t see the connection at all."

Analysts: Actual Pressure on Iran Is Limited

Some analysts support the blockade. Former senior U.S. diplomat and Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross wrote on X that the move cuts off Iran’s exports and sources of income, counterbalancing Iran’s own closure of the Strait. Former diplomat Richard Haass believes that a "fully open or fully closed for everyone" policy could help build international consensus, as maintaining the free flow of international waters is in almost every nation’s interest.

However, more analysts doubt the actual effect.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the British think tank Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, argued that Iran is already in a state of self-blockade because of restrictions on its oil export channels. "A US blockade might squeeze Iranian oil out of the market, but the impact on the national budget is secondary, and nowhere near the price Iran is already willing to pay to withstand airstrikes. If this is supposed to be a pressure tactic, it’s a very strange choice."

From Iran’s overall strategic perspective, one of Tehran’s core goals since the start of the war has been to maximize the costs of the conflict for the U.S., its allies, and the world economy.

Additionally, Iran borders 15 countries and has numerous overland routes to Iraq, Turkey, Central Asian states, Russia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, giving it plenty of alternatives to maritime routes in response to a blockade.

Currently, whether the fragile ceasefire deal signed two weeks ago can survive the implementation of the blockade will become the biggest variable affecting the global energy market.

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