Everything can be bet on? Prediction market Kalshi launches "Labubu" prediction contracts, betting on the resale prices of popular sneakers and collectibles.
```Prediction market platform Kalshi is expanding its business territory from political elections and sports events to the consumer goods sector, marking an accelerated penetration of the prediction market industry—between financial trading and gambling—into the mainstream market.
On Wednesday, Kalshi announced a partnership with sneaker trading platform StockX to launch event contracts based on the resale prices of popular sneakers, trading cards, and collectible figurines. Users can bet on whether Jordan sneakers, Supreme hoodies, and highly sought-after Labubu blind boxes will break specific price thresholds after release, or predict the best-selling brands during major shopping events like Black Friday.
This collaboration is the latest attempt by the prediction market industry to go mainstream. The sector has seen explosive growth since Kalshi won its lawsuit against US regulators last year and was allowed to offer presidential election trades. According to previous media reports, Kalshi has received offers from venture investors valuing it at over $10 billion.
This new business category targets the rising alternative asset market in recent years, including limited edition Nike and Adidas sneakers, as well as fashionable collectible Labubu figurines hanging from handbags. These products often fetch several times the retail price in the resale market.
Event contracts cover diverse consumer categories
According to the partnership, Kalshi will use StockX data to create so-called event contracts covering sneakers, trading cards, and figurines. The initial contracts will focus on "selected, high-demand products from major brands," with both companies planning to expand their collaboration in the future.
Specific products include highly anticipated new Jordan sneakers, Supreme hoodies, and blind boxes containing random Labubu figurines. Additionally, event contracts will cover the monthly average price of popular products, allowing users to trade the average resale prices of products on StockX starting in November and December. The first featured items include Labubu, New Balance, and Asics sneakers.
StockX CEO Greg Schwartz said in an interview: "This truly is a natural progression of a platform built around stock market mechanisms."
Aiming for the "exchange of everything" goal
Founded in 2018, Kalshi allows users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events such as sports matches and political elections. The company is licensed and regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in an interview that the growth of prediction markets has far exceeded expectations, and event contracts for goods like sneakers and collectibles signal the company’s entry into a new category. He said Kalshi will continue to look for "deep, highly liquid, high-volume markets," with a goal to build an "exchange of everything."
This expansion strategy aligns with recent trends in the growth of alternative asset classes. From limited edition Nike and Adidas sneakers to fashionable Labubu figurines with fangs and bunny ears, these products regularly fetch a multiple of retail prices in resale markets, while Pokémon benefits from surging interest in trading cards.
Regulatory uncertainty remains
This collectible contract agreement signals the prediction market industry’s step towards mainstream acceptance, but the industry still operates in the gray area between financial trading and gambling and faces regulatory uncertainty. For instance, Nevada gaming regulators are trying to prevent Kalshi from launching sports and political event contracts.
Nevertheless, since Kalshi won its lawsuit against US regulators last year and was allowed to offer presidential election results trading, the industry has experienced explosive growth. Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket Exchange are actively raising funds to fuel their expansion.
Risk warning and disclaimerMarkets have risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk. ```