Existing home sales in the U.S. have fallen to a nine-month low, and the White House says there is a shortage of at least 10 million single-family homes.

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The US housing market is facing dual pressures on the eve of the traditional peak season: existing home sales continue to decline, and the housing shortage is far greater than previously estimated. Despite frequent policy moves, high mortgage rates are suppressing any signs of recovery.

According to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales in March fell 3.6% year-over-year to 3.98 million units, the lowest since June last year and below the median forecast of Bloomberg economists.

Meanwhile, the White House Council of Economic Advisers' latest report raised the estimated shortage of single-family homes in the US to at least 10 million units, well above previous estimates by the government and private institutions.

Hit by the Iran war, mortgage rates have surged, further intensifying the housing market's affordability crisis. The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.37%, more than double the rate of five years ago.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement: "Continued upward movement in mortgage rates has prompted us to lower our expectation for this year’s existing home sales." NAR immediately slashed its projection for existing home sales growth in 2026 from the previous 14% to 4%.

Sales Retreat Across the Board, Northeast Hits Record Low

NAR data shows that contract signings in March fell across all US regions. Existing home sales in the Northeast dropped to the lowest level since records began in 1999, while the Midwest matched its lowest levels since 2011. First-time buyers continued to account for about one-third of purchases.

The median price of existing homes sold in March rose 1.4% year-over-year to $408,800, reflecting continued mismatch between supply and demand. In terms of inventory, the number of existing homes listed for sale rose slightly to a four-month high, but remains severely low by historical standards.

Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul noted, “Rising inventory of existing homes, continued deterioration in consumers’ expectations about homebuying conditions, steadily rising mortgage rates from early March to early April, and oversupply of new homes will combine to put downward pressure on home prices over the next year amidst persistently weak demand relative to supply.”

White House Report: Shortfall at Least 10 Million Units, Far Exceeding Previous Estimates

The White House Council of Economic Advisers stated in the President’s Economic Report: “If construction and the growth of single-family home stock had not slowed sharply after 2008 and had continued at the historical pace, there would be at least 10 million more single-family homes today.”

This figure is significantly higher than previous estimates by both official and private entities. Freddie Mac’s November 2024 assessment put the US housing shortage at 3.7 million units; in June 2021, the NAR, comparing the trend of the past two decades and construction speed from 1968 to 2000, estimated a gap of 5.5 million units.

The timing of the report’s release carries political significance. Last month, the Senate passed a comprehensive bill aimed at lowering housing costs by a vote of 89 to 10, but its fate in the House remains uncertain. Some lawmakers want to include controversial provisions requiring investors to sell "build-to-rent" properties held for seven years.

Multi-Pronged Policy Effort, High Interest Rates Limit Effect

In March, Trump signed two executive orders. One aims to relax mortgage credit access by instructing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to modify relevant rules to make it easier for small and medium-sized banks to “offer more affordable loans”; the other seeks to streamline environmental approval procedures to accelerate development and infrastructure projects.

Previously, the Trump administration had proposed measures such as 50-year mortgages and allowing borrowers to withdraw from 401(k) retirement accounts for down payments without penalty, but these proposals were blocked due to opposition from Congress, the financial industry, and even Trump himself.

The White House also directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to jointly purchase $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in hopes of pushing down mortgage rates. This move led to a brief dip in rates, but they soon climbed again due to the impact of the Iran war.

According to Freddie Mac, the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.37%, more than double its level five years ago.

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