Expansion cannot stop! Citi: Samsung, TSMC, and Intel, the three giants, will have positive guidance for capital expenditure.

Citibank expects the upcoming 2026 capital expenditure guidance from the three semiconductor giants — TSMC, Samsung, and Intel — to be positive, which will inject strong momentum into the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market. The bank maintains its view that the semiconductor equipment industry is in the second phase of an upward cycle, and believes that global WFE spending in 2026 is heading toward $126 billion under its optimistic scenario, higher than the base forecast of $115 billion.

According to Chase Trading Desk, Citibank stated in its January 5th research report that TSMC is expected to set its 2026 capital expenditure guidance in the $46–48 billion range, Intel’s capital expenditure will stabilize, and Samsung may upgrade its investment following Micron’s capacity expansion. Together, these three companies account for about 59% of Citibank’s 2026 global WFE spending model, and their capital expenditure trends serve as a bellwether for the entire semiconductor equipment supply chain.

Citibank analyst Atif Malik commented in the report that higher capital expenditures by the three giants will be associated with greater growth opportunities. The bank’s base model assumes a 30% increase in NAND memory chip equipment spending in 2026, a 12% increase in DRAM, and a 6% increase in front-end logic chips.

TSMC: Capital Expenditure May Reach $47 Billion, Upward Revision Possible Throughout the Year

Citibank expects TSMC to announce its 2026 capital expenditure guidance in the $46–48 billion range in the earnings report to be released before the US market opens on January 15, and may further upgrade it during the year. The bank’s own model predicts TSMC’s 2026 capital expenditure at $47 billion, with additional upward potential.

Based on Citibank’s communication with investors, the market expects TSMC’s 2026 capital expenditure to be around $50 billion. This expectation is higher than Citibank’s initial forecast range, indicating optimism in the market regarding TSMC’s expansion efforts.

In its earnings call last October, TSMC narrowed its 2025 capital expenditure range from the previous $38–42 billion to $40–42 billion. Management stated at the time that higher capital expenditure levels are always associated with greater growth opportunities, setting the stage for a further increase in investment scale in 2026.

Intel: Capital Expenditure to Stabilize, Back-End Customer Pipeline Improvement Provides Support

Citibank expects Intel’s 2026 capital expenditure to stabilize, mainly benefiting from improvements in its foundry business, especially the back-end customer pipeline. The bank’s model shows Intel’s capital expenditure at $18 billion for 2025 and $15 billion for 2026, while market consensus (FactSet data) is $17 billion for 2025 and $16 billion for 2026.

Intel is expected to release its earnings report after the US market closes on January 22. In last October’s earnings call, the company maintained its 2025 total capital expenditure guidance at $18 billion and estimated 2026 capital expenditure at about $16 billion.

Citibank’s forecast shows that although Intel’s 2026 capital expenditure will decline compared to 2025, as its foundry customer pipeline improves, particularly with growth in back-end packaging business, capital expenditure will stabilize instead of dropping sharply. This is a positive signal for Intel as it advances its IDM 2.0 strategy and the transformation of its foundry business.

Samsung: Capital Expenditure Has Upside Potential, Micron’s Significant Investment Provides Reference

Citibank believes Samsung’s 2026 capital expenditure has upside potential, mainly based on competitor Micron’s significant upward revision of capital expenditure guidance. Samsung is expected to announce its earnings report after the US market closes on January 29, but the company typically does not provide specific capital expenditure guidance in earnings calls.

However, Samsung management has previously stated that the company will keep its 2026 capital expenditure flexible and will increase investment as needed based on growing AI demand. This statement leaves room for an upward adjustment in capital expenditure.

Citibank notes that in its December 2025 earnings call, Micron raised its FY2026 (ending August 2026) net capital expenditure from the previous $18 billion to $20 billion, a 45% year-on-year increase, nearly doubling construction capital expenditure. Micron also indicated that FY2027 capital expenditure will continue to grow.

As a direct competitor with Samsung in the memory chip market, Micron’s aggressive capacity expansion may prompt Samsung to take corresponding actions to maintain its market position. Citibank believes Samsung’s capital expenditure decision will be consistent with Micron’s stance.

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The above highlights are from Chase Trading Desk.

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