Facing collapse theories, Altman admitted: OpenAI's performance over the past 12 months has been poor, "mainly my fault."

```

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman openly admitted that the company’s performance over the past year failed to meet expectations, taking primary responsibility himself, and said the coming 12 months will be the best year since the company’s founding. This rare statement comes amid rising external doubts about OpenAI’s business model and the return on investment for AI.

On July 17, Altman posted on social platform X: “The past 12 months were not our best ever, and that’s mostly my fault, but we are about to have our best year yet.” He also emphasized that the mission of AI is to empower more freedom, autonomy, and wealth, rather than relying on fear to drive users’ choices.

Meanwhile, debates about the business model of AI continue to intensify. According to a previous article from Wallstreetcn, Ed Zitron, a long-time AI skeptic, recently described OpenAI as the "systemically important institution" of this round of AI investment, arguing that if its business model falters, the impact could ripple through data centers, AI infrastructure, and global tech stocks. Altman's public statement brings renewed attention to this issue.

Altman's Self-Reflection and Apology, Users Await Product Effectiveness

Altman did not disclose specific mistakes but spoke directly, attributing the past year's underperformance to his own leadership. He said the team is advancing “amazing work,” hinting that upcoming new products will satisfy users.

His statement sparked mixed reactions on social media. Some users appreciated his candor, but others noted that, more than public statements, the key issue is whether OpenAI can deliver on promises to improve product quality, system stability, and commercial efficiency in the next 12 months.

User Jeff (@AllenTheDetails) commented: “If it’s just empty talk, users won’t feel it. If it’s better workflow and lower service cost, they will.” Another user, @onecloudtech, said: “Users still have confidence in the product, but trust must be built up through successive product launches.”

“Is the AI Bubble OpenAI's Bubble?” Zitron Launches Radical Doubts

Altman's post comes as external doubts about OpenAI's business model fuel a new wave of public scrutiny. Ed Zitron, a long-term AI skeptic, recently published an essay putting forth the most radical judgment so far: The real AI bubble is essentially the "OpenAI bubble".

He argues that since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, OpenAI has become the "credit anchor" of the entire generative AI era — investors’ confidence in continued demand for super-scale data centers, GPUs, and super-model companies’ ultimate profitability is all premised on OpenAI’s ongoing rapid growth.

Zitron's doubts center around three points: First, inference costs remain high, meaning expanded user scale could increase losses in parallel; second, capital spending is expanding much faster than cash flow improvement, with many data center projects taking years to recoup costs; third, OpenAI will continue to rely heavily on external financing for years to come, and should the financing environment tighten, its business model will face greater pressure.

It is worth noting that these views are Zitron's personal opinions, and OpenAI has not endorsed them. Still, the concerns reflect real market debates about AI capital ROI.

AI Infrastructure Boom Conceals Risks: If Demand Expectations Falter, Valuation Adjustments May Hit the Industry Chain

Zitron's concerns go beyond OpenAI itself, extending into the wider AI infrastructure supply chain.

In the past two years, the U.S. tech industry has seen an unprecedented wave of data center construction. Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and other super-scale cloud providers are increasing capital expenditure, while Oracle, CoreWeave, and others are taking on more AI compute construction tasks, with many related projects dependent on long-term leasing, project finance, private credit, and corporate bonds.

Zitron argues that if demand from core clients like OpenAI falls short, or capital markets reassess AI ROI, companies heavily reliant on AI infrastructure growth like Oracle and CoreWeave may be the first to feel the impact, since their high valuations are based largely on continual explosive growth in AI demand.

Anthropic and Softbank have also entered the discussion. Zitron points out that Anthropic and OpenAI follow different paths, but both require ongoing massive investment and rely on big tech for compute support; SoftBank, having made big bets on AI infrastructure, chips, and model companies, will have its vast AI asset portfolio scrutinized if the industry enters a valuation adjustment cycle.

No Conclusion Yet on the Bubble Question, Market Focus Shifts from “How Much Was Spent” to “How Much Was Earned”

Debates about whether AI has entered a bubble phase have lasted on Wall Street for some time, but there is no definitive conclusion.

Oak Tree Capital co-founder Howard Marks recently said he has shifted from initially suspecting AI might just be a bubble, to more firmly recognizing its long-term value. He thinks the reasoning, context understanding, and interaction capabilities of modern AI are unprecedented, making it unlike past speculative bubbles and positioning AI as a general technology platform on par with the internet and electrification.

Some academic studies offer a more neutral conclusion: today’s AI market features real technological progress, but also pockets of overheated valuation and excessive capital spending, closer to a “technology revolution overlaying local bubbles,” rather than pure speculation mania.

For investors, the truly important metrics are shifting from capital spending to another data set: enterprise AI revenue growth, AI product payment rate, speed of inference cost decline, data center utilization, and AI investment return cycle. Whether Altman’s promise can be validated in these areas may be the key reference for the market to reassess AI trading valuation logic.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks; investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ special investment goals, financial status, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular situation. Invest at your own risk. ```