"‘Fake oil prices’ are still hovering around $100, while the ‘real oil price’ has already reached $155."

"‘Fake oil prices’ are still hovering around $100, while the ‘real oil price’ has already reached $155."

Global oil prices are experiencing a rare bifurcation. Brent and WTI remain around $100, while the spot prices of Dubai and Oman crude have soared to $155 per barrel.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, on March 17, the research report by Natasha Kaneva’s team, head of commodities at JPMorgan, pointed out that the relative stability of Brent and WTI does not indicate ample global supply, but rather is a “mirage” jointly created by regional inventory buffers, deviations in benchmark pricing structures, and policy interventions.

JPMorgan warns that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, this price divergence will not last. As the Atlantic Basin inventories gradually deplete, Brent and WTI will eventually be forced to reprice upward, converging with Middle East spot prices.

Atlantic Inventories Mask the Middle East Shortage

JPMorgan emphasizes that the stability of Brent and WTI prices is primarily because they are "Atlantic Basin benchmarks". This means their pricing depends more on local supply and demand in Europe and America, rather than on global conditions.

The current supply disruption centers on the Strait of Hormuz, located in the Middle East. The US and Europe have ample commercial crude inventories through early 2026, and the market even expects or has partially realized the release of strategic petroleum reserves, all of which temporarily alleviate tensions on the Atlantic coast.

Therefore, these two benchmarks reflect a regional, buffered looseness, rather than a global scarcity.

In contrast, Dubai and Oman crude, as Middle East benchmarks, are directly exposed to the impact of export disruptions, capturing marginal scarcity more effectively. Both spot prices have currently reached $155 per barrel.

This price directly reflects the extreme difficulties of shipping crude from the Gulf region, as Brent and WTI are unable to fully capture the marginal supply shortage occurring in the Middle East.

Asia Bears the Brunt; Time Lag Gives Europe and America a Buffer Period

Geopolitical trade patterns further amplify this divergence. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil shipping chokepoint, with the vast majority of transit crude flowing to Asian markets.

JPMorgan data shows that India, Japan, and South Korea are the main buyers of Gulf crude. Asia imports about 11.2 million barrels per day of crude via the Strait, and about 1.4 million barrels per day of refined oil products.

This means the immediate physical shortages and price spikes from this supply disruption are most concentrated in the Asian market. JPMorgan points out early signs of demand destruction in Asia, as product prices surge, spot procurement costs rise, and some demand starts to withdraw from the market.

The temporal logic of transport further widens the price gap. The typical voyage from the Gulf region to Asia is about 10–15 days, while the journey to Europe via the Suez Canal takes about 25–30 days. Rounding the Cape of Good Hope takes 35–45 days.

This means Asia will more quickly and acutely bear the impact of Gulf crude supply disruptions, while the Atlantic Basin market represented by Brent and WTI, due to inventory backlogs and slow supply adjustments, gets a longer buffer period.

The Buffer Will Ultimately Run Out; Brent and WTI Face Catch-up Pressure

JPMorgan makes it clear that the current surface stability of Brent and WTI is temporary.

The three main factors supporting this stability—regional inventory surpluses, benchmark pricing structures, and policy interventions—are essentially short-term buffers and do not reflect the true global supply tightness. Once commercial inventories in the Atlantic Basin are rapidly depleted, the global market will be forced to clear at much tighter supply conditions.

In JPMorgan’s scenario analysis, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice upward, aligning with Middle East spot prices. At that point, the current price difference of more than $55 per barrel between Brent and Dubai will become the greatest risk premium hanging over global oil prices.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above highlights are from Chasing Wind Trading Desk.

For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join [Chasing Wind Trading Desk · Annual Membership]

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks; investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.