Fed up with changing N times a day, energy hedge funds establish trading strategies that ignore Trump.

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The Middle East conflict has triggered violent market turbulence, with some hedge funds fed up with the noise from Trump’s statements, preparing to focus on structural opportunities in energy stocks.

Renaud Saleur, CEO of Geneva-based boutique energy hedge fund Anaconda, said, the fund has decided to ignore a series of Trump’s comments on the conflict to avoid being distracted by overly dense signals, instead shifting focus to more certain structural positioning.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the fund has continued to increase positions in the oil services sector, achieving a cumulative return of about 35% so far this year. Saleur bluntly stated:

Trump’s statements have an unmanageable impact on the stock and derivatives markets; he can change his stance ten times in a day.

Since the US-Israel-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, Trump’s statements on targets and duration have frequently shifted, causing significant market volatility.

Intraday trading is nearly impossible, funds turn to long-term oil services positions

Renaud Saleur said, since the Iran conflict broke out, the fund has continued to increase its positions in oil services companies, now managing about $150 million in assets.

Within this framework, hedge fund Anaconda persistently bought shares of US drilling technology company Baker Hughes and Norwegian Frontline throughout March.

Meanwhile, the fund also maintained holdings in SLB and other oil tanker, drilling, and engineering stocks. Saleur said the fund has held a bullish stance on energy stocks and futures since last December. Saleur said:

The market is extremely chaotic, and it will take months or even years for the situation to settle.

Todd Warren, member of Tribeca’s global natural resources investment team and portfolio manager, also finds the current market environment tricky. Warren said:

When the market fluctuates at such a pace following tweets and headlines, intraday trading is nearly impossible.

However, he believes one thing is relatively clear:

Given the increased conflict risk premium, oil prices will likely end up significantly higher than pre-war levels, but no one can give an answer as to when or how they will stabilize.

In specific positioning, Tribeca will build Australia’s energy company Woodside into its largest holding in strategy in the second half of 2025, slightly reduced last week, but Warren still believes the stock is “severely underestimated by the market.”

Additionally, Tribeca is “selectively” buying shares of US oil and gas exploration company Expand Energy.

Warren called it a company with “the largest onshore natural gas production base in the US,” and emphasized that the strategic value of natural gas as a transition fuel in the energy shift is still supported by strong demand.

Bypassing Hormuz, betting on undervalued targets outside the South American supply chain

Sydney hedge fund Minotaur Capital co-founder Armina Rosenberg takes a geopolitical logic, focusing on energy companies in South America.

Armina Rosenberg believes these companies deliver oil and gas to buyers without passing through the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, thus naturally avoiding the conflict’s impact on shipping routes.

After the conflict erupted, Minotaur bought shares in Parex Resources, Geopark, and Gran Tierra Energy. Rosenberg said:

Colombian oil producers are currently still among the lowest valued stocks in the entire market.

She also clarified her exit strategy:

Unless oil prices plunge well below $75 per barrel, I won't sell.

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```