Federal Reserve decision + China-US data + tech giants' earnings! Global markets enter the "eye of the storm"

Federal Reserve decision + China-US data + tech giants' earnings! Global markets enter the "eye of the storm"

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Overview of major financial events for the week of January 26 – February 1 (all times Beijing time):

The main focus is “Super Earnings Week”, with tech giants led by Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple releasing their results. The core focus has shifted from traditional financial metrics to the monetization efficiency of AI capital spending and the strength of the hardware cycle recovery. Storage giants Samsung, SK Hynix, and US trio SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Tech’s results will directly test the onset of the AI-driven storage “super cycle.”

Macro themes remain key. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but Chairman Powell’s speech will shape expectations for delayed rate cuts; US PCE inflation data will provide the latest evidence on price pressures. Politics and geopolitics are important “X factors”—the new Fed chair may be announced, further developments in Greenland and other geopolitical hotspots, and renewed US government shutdown risk at month’s end will continue injecting uncertainty into markets. Additionally, Finnish Prime Minister and UK Prime Minister are expected to visit China.

Numerous industry conferences are being held, including the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) space computing symposium, OPEC+ monthly meeting, EU-India summit, “European Fusion Energy” conference, Asian Financial Forum, etc.

Economic Indicators

  • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

At 3am on January 30 Beijing time, the Fed will announce its January rate decision, followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference. The market broadly expects the Fed to hold steady, with a very low probability of a cut in Q1; the easing window may be pushed back to after Powell’s term ends in May. US economic growth and stubborn inflation are delaying rate cuts.

Nomura Securities analysts Jeremy Schwartz et al. point out the Fed may even delay its first rate cut until after Chair Powell’s term ends in May. Thus, the focus of this meeting is Powell’s remarks: how he justifies keeping rates in light of stronger-than-expected economic resilience, and whether his comments will fully rule out near-term rate cuts, cementing expectations for delayed easing. Another key point is political pressure—Powell may be asked if the judicial investigation into him or President Trump’s criticism will affect the independence of decision making.

  • China/US Economic Data

China will release official PMI data for January on Saturday, February 1. The market will scrutinize if the manufacturing sector can maintain expansion amid the disruptions from the Spring Festival and whether price indexes continue to improve. Macro analyst Zhong Yumei previously pointed out that December data have already indicated increased willingness of companies to expand production and positive signals for profit transmission downstream.

Additionally, December industrial enterprise profit data are expected on Tuesday, January 27. According to Zhang Di's team at Galaxy Securities, earlier profit growth faced pressure, so whether the data stabilizes this time, especially the support from high-end manufacturing, will be a focus.

For the US, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, December PCE data, will be released January 29, and December PPI data on January 30.

Super Earnings Week

  • Tech giants: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, ASML, IBM

Next week, US stocks will enter “Super Earnings Week,” with Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, ASML, IBM and other giants reporting one after another. Market focus is shifting from just revenue figures to monetization efficiency of AI capital expenditure and the hardware cycle’s recovery.

Tesla’s attention point has shifted from financials to FSD, humanoid robots, and Robotaxi tech progress. Microsoft and Meta will mainly address the “AI spending and revenue” questions. Apple faces rising cost pressures and needs to demonstrate its pricing power and supply chain control. In addition, ASML and IBM’s results will verify trends in upstream semiconductors and enterprise IT spending.

  • Storage giants: US SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Tech, Korea’s Samsung, SK Hynix

Next week, US storage giants SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Tech, as well as Korean duo Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will release their latest earnings. The key point is whether the AI-driven memory price hike translates into profit growth for these companies.

Samsung is expected to achieve a historic single-quarter profit breakthrough through DRAM price hikes, and will compete with SK Hynix on HBM4 supply and huge capital expenditure. SanDisk’s results will be a benchmark for NAND flash pricing power and the intensity of AI demand, while Western Digital and Seagate Tech will also benefit from the new industry prosperity.

  • Oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron; HK-listed New Oriental

In addition, US oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron, HK-listed New Oriental and Oriental Selection will also announce their earnings.

Other US earnings next week include: ABB, American Express, Ameriprise Financial, Applied Materials, Arthur Gallagher, Asian Paints, AT&T, Atlas Copco, Blackstone, Boeing, Canon, Deutsche Bank, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, General Motors, Hitachi, LG Energy Solution, Mastercard, Nokia, Nomura, Sanofi, Starbucks, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth, Visa, Volvo, and hundreds of others.

Financial Events

  • Treasury Secretary Besant: New Fed chair may be announced as early as week of Jan 26 (all week)

US Treasury Secretary Besant confirmed on Jan 21 that President Trump “may announce the new Fed chair as early as next week (week of Jan 26)”—there are “four outstanding candidates.” Besant previously said Trump planned to make the decision in January, possibly before/after WEF at Davos.

  • Ongoing focus on geopolitical risks and US moves (all week)

On Feb 1, Trump will not levy extra tariffs on the EU and says a “framework agreement” has been reached on Greenland with NATO. Geopolitical tensions remain high from Venezuela and the Middle East to Greenland, and a series of unconventional moves by the US government are pushing up global risk-off sentiment. Geopolitics is now a key market variable.

  • Trump says framework reached with NATO on Greenland; no tariffs on Feb 1

According to CCTV, President Trump stated that the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the entire Arctic region has been agreed, and there will be no tariffs on multiple European countries related to Greenland on Feb 1.

  • EU-India summit may announce trade deal; EU foreign ministers to meet in Brussels to discuss Russia-Ukraine

According to Global Times, facing uncertainty from US trade policies, the EU is turning to India. Bloomberg reported on the 21st that EC President von der Leyen said at Davos the “historic” trade agreement would likely be announced during her visit to India next week. Also, EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss Russia-Ukraine.

  • Finland PM Orpo to visit China Jan 25–28

Foreign ministry spokesperson: At the invitation of Premier Li Qiang, Finnish PM Orpo will make an official visit to China Jan 25–28.

  • UK PM to visit China Jan 29–31

According to The Paper, Dec 10, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a routine briefing. According to reports, UK PM Starmer will visit Beijing and Shanghai Jan 29–31 next year. Guo Jiakun said China attaches importance to improving relations and is willing to deepen exchanges. "As far as I know, China has not yet discussed the visit dates or details with the UK side."

  • Asian Financial Forum; HK Financial Secretary Paul Chan to attend

HK to host the 19th Asian Financial Forum Jan 26–27, debuting the “Global Industry Summit.” Paul Chan is among the keynote speakers.

  • US government faces renewed shutdown risk by Jan 30

After market close Jan 9, Trump declared “government shutdown may occur again Jan 30.”

With government funding about to run out, on Jan 8, the House passed three appropriations bills that move Congress closer to funding the federal government before the Jan 30 shutdown deadline, covering the Energy, Commerce, Justice Depts, water/environmental projects, and federal R&D.

  • Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi may announce election notice

According to CCTV International News, Japanese media previously reported that Sanae Takaichi has decided to dissolve the House on Jan 23, the date of the Diet session's opening, to hold early elections. If the House dissolves Jan 23, two possible timetables: Jan 27 notice, Feb 8 voting/counting; or Feb 3 notice, Feb 15 voting/counting.

  • Tianshu Zhixin unveils future GPGPU roadmap Jan 26

According to Shanghai Securities News, Chinese GPU-maker Tianshu Zhixin will release its major new three-generation product roadmap on Jan 26, covering innovative GPGPU architecture, high-quality computing infrastructure, and cloud AI training/inference for the Internet sector. Industry forecasts that 2026–2028, these products will directly compete with NVIDIA H200, B200.

  • CAICT: Upcoming “Star Computing • Intelligent Link” Space Computing Symposium; release of “Computing Star Net” joint initiative

To implement national policies on advanced productivity, aerospace power, and Digital China, and seize strategic opportunities for integrating aerospace information and intelligent computing, CAICT plans to hold the 2026 “Star Computing · Intelligent Link” Space Computing Symposium Jan 26. The meeting will launch the “Computing Star Net” joint initiative and the presentation of the “Space Computing Development Outlook Research Report (2026).” Also, Guoxing Yuhang will introduce “Guoxing Yuhang Star Computing Plan,” Zhejiang Lab will introduce the “Three-Body Computing Constellation,” and Beijing Spacecraft General Design Division will outline developments in space intelligent digital infrastructure.

  • OPEC+ monthly meeting Feb 1

Eight OPEC+ oil producers to hold their monthly policy meeting.

  • “European Fusion Energy” conference

January 27, the European Parliament will host the “European Fusion Energy” conference and release the EU’s fusion strategy. Also, the US Senate Agriculture Committee will “draft” cryptocurrency legislation on Jan 27.

  • US Treasury: Trump to attend Trump Account Summit

US Treasury: President Trump and Secretary Besant will attend the Trump Account Summit next Wednesday (Jan 28), to be livestreamed from the historic Mellon Auditorium in Washington DC. This summit will introduce the “Trump Account” plan, which will provide $1,000 for every US child born between Jan 1, 2025, and Dec 31, 2028.

  • State Council press conference: Ministry of Commerce to introduce 2025 trade work and operations

The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3pm on Monday, Jan 26, 2026, with Deputy Minister of Commerce Yan Dong introducing the Ministry’s 2025 work and operations and answering journalists’ questions.

  • Shanghai new drone regulations in effect Feb: one-stop service for drone registration, flight application, routine booking

According to The Paper, to regulate civil UAV activity, the “Interim Measures for Safety Management of Civil UAV Flights in Shanghai” take effect Feb 1, 2026. The “Announcement on Suitable Airspace for Micro, Light, and Small Civil UAVs” was also recently issued. The “Shanghai Low-Altitude Flight Comprehensive Regulatory Service Platform” will also launch Feb 1, enabling users to register drones, apply for flight, book experience zones via the “Suishenban” app for “rapid application, one-click flight.”

  • Central Bank's “RMB Cross-Border Payment System Business Rules” take effect

China’s central bank released the “RMB Cross-Border Payment System Business Rules,” in effect from Feb 1, 2026.

  • Vanke 5.7bn yuan medium-term notes may be redeemed Jan 28

Previously, Vanke’s 5.7bn yuan medium-term notes holder meeting agenda was announced. Four redemption proposals, highest 40% of principal, may be paid Jan 28.

  • Yageo: price hike on certain resistors; Panasonic: will raise tantalum capacitor prices

Due to significant cost increases in chip product lines, Yageo will raise certain resistor prices by about 15–20% starting Feb 1. Panasonic has issued price increase notices, with tantalum capacitor prices up by up to 30%, effective Feb 1, 2026.

Risk DisclaimerThe market is risky, investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situation. Investment decisions are at your own risk.