Federal Reserve decision countdown! U.S. stock futures edge lower, chip stocks collectively fall before the market opens, Nvidia drops nearly 1%, spot gold declines.

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On Wednesday the 17th, U.S. stock index futures slipped narrowly ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting conclusion. The market widely expects the central bank to announce the first rate cut in 2025, with a 96% probability given to a 25-basis-point cut, and only a 4% chance for a larger rate cut.

Before the U.S. market opened, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.2%, Nasdaq futures dropped 0.25%, both hitting intraday lows. U.S. chip stocks declined briefly pre-market; Nvidia fell nearly 1% at one point, Intel and AMD dropped 0.5%, and ASML fell 0.78%. The dollar rose and spot gold retreated.

Besides the rate cut decision, investors will also closely watch the release of the Fed’s "dot plot," which will reveal the central bank’s expectations on rate cut frequency for the remainder of 2025. Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference after the decision is also of great interest to the market.

S&P 500 index futures fell 0.2%, Nasdaq index futures dropped 0.25%, both hitting intraday lows. U.S. chip stocks declined briefly pre-market; Nvidia fell nearly 1% at one point, Intel and AMD dropped 0.5%, and ASML fell 0.78%.Major European stock markets opened higher. Germany’s DAX30 index opened up 0.42%. The UK FTSE 100 index opened up 0.20%. France's CAC40 index opened up 0.30%. The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up 0.32%.The U.S. dollar index rose 0.11% to 96.75.The Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the dollar, Indonesia’s five-year government bond yield fell by 5 basis points, and the Indonesian stock market continued to rise after a surprise rate cut from Indonesia’s central bank.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 1bp to 4.015%.Spot gold fell 0.69% to $3664.25/oz.

On the eve of a rate cut, U.S. stock futures and gold fall together

Cautious sentiment has led the U.S. stock market to stall on the eve of a key decision, with Wall Street holding its breath for a clear signal regarding the direction of future monetary policy.

S&P 500 index futures dropped 0.2%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.25%, both hitting intraday lows. U.S. chip stocks declined briefly pre-market; Nvidia dropped nearly 1% at one point, Intel and AMD fell 0.5%, ASML dropped 0.78%.

Baidu rose over 8% pre-market. Huatai Securities believes that as one of the few domestic internet companies with full-stack AI capabilities, several of Baidu’s business assets are significantly undervalued. With the penetration of AI large model capabilities, the value of Baidu's AI advertising monetization, autonomous driving, Kunlun chips, and AI tool-type applications (such as Wenku and cloud storage) is gradually emerging.

The market has almost fully priced in expectations of a Fed rate cut. Traders are betting a 96% likelihood on a 25-basis-point cut, with only a 4% probability of a larger cut. According to analysts, although inflation has risen somewhat, the slowdown in the labor market is enough to persuade policymakers to act.

Although a rate cut is considered a done deal, there is still uncertainty over the trajectory of future interest rates. Therefore, investors will focus on the release of the Fed’s "dot plot," which will provide key clues regarding the central bank’s expectations on rate cuts for the remainder of 2025.

The dollar index rose 0.11% to 96.75.

Spot gold fell 0.69% to 3664.25.

Risk warnings and disclaimerThe market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```