Federal Reserve survey: Americans' views on the job market worsened in October, while inflation expectations eased.

The latest monthly survey results from the New York Fed show that Americans’ views on the job market worsened in October, while inflation expectations eased somewhat. Specifically:

• Expectations for consumer price increases over the next year dropped slightly from 3.4% in September to 3.2% in October, while inflation expectations for the next three and five years remained roughly unchanged at around 3%.
• The surveyed households had mixed views on the outlook for major commodity prices, anticipating declines in gasoline and food prices. Meanwhile, expectations for rising medical costs over the next year reached their highest level since February 2023 in October.
• Unemployment expectations rose for the third straight month. Consumers’ average probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now reached 43%, the highest since April this year.
• Consumers’ perceived chances of finding a new job if they become unemployed declined in October. In line with economists’ descriptions of a “low layoff, low hiring” environment, the likelihood of voluntary resignations decreased, and the probability of being laid off also dropped.
• Expectations for household financial conditions continued to worsen, with more respondents reporting their financial situation is worse than a year ago and expecting further deterioration in the coming year. However, perceptions of credit availability improved, with the proportion of households finding it harder to get loans dropping to the lowest level since 2022.

This New York Fed survey was conducted in October, a period marked by a government shutdown and growing concerns about the outlook for the job market.

The New York Fed’s findings were broadly similar to a University of Michigan survey released earlier the same day. The Michigan survey showed a deterioration in the outlook for the job market, with 71% of respondents expecting the unemployment rate to rise in the next year—more than twice the proportion from a year earlier. Short-term inflation expectations in the Michigan survey edged up slightly, while long-term inflation expectations receded.

Media analysis noted that with more signs of weakness in the labor market and inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, these data may further intensify divisions within the Federal Reserve. Last week, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but several officials subsequently expressed concerns about the necessity of continued rate cuts.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their individual circumstances. Investing based on this information is at your own risk.