Feitian has fallen below 1,700 yuan; Moutai faces its most uncertain winter.
```
Another Double 11 has arrived, and Maotai’s pricing system is experiencing unprecedented upheaval.
On November 4th, both Pinduoduo and Taobao had listings for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Maotai at 1499 yuan per bottle. On Pinduoduo, three consumers must join a group purchase to buy together, while on Taobao, the subsidized bottles are available in limited quantities on the hour.
At the same time, Maotai's wholesale price continued hitting new lows.
According to the latest wholesale reference prices disclosed by “Today's Liquor Prices,” the original case price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Maotai is 1670 yuan per bottle, and the individual bottle price is 1640 yuan per bottle.
As the white spirit industry enters a prolonged period of decline, Maotai’s growth is losing momentum.
In the first three quarters of 2025, Maotai achieved revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, up 6.32% year-on-year; net profit was 64.6 billion yuan, up 6.25% year-on-year.
This means that in order to meet the full-year target of 9% growth, Maotai must achieve about 15% growth in the fourth quarter.
This third-quarter report also coincides with Maotai's leadership change.
On October 25, Maotai Group held a meeting to announce a major personnel adjustment: Chen Hua, Director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, will replace Zhang Deqin as Chairman of Maotai Group, and three days later he became Chairman of Kweichow Maotai.
After more than a year, leadership changed again, and the new chief now faces a more complicated situation:
Volume, price, and performance have become an “impossible triangle.” How to balance these, resolve inventory, manage the current industry cycle, and confirm new growth paths will be the main challenges of their tenure.
Price Slump Trajectory
In the third quarter, Maotai's revenue and profit growth sharply narrowed to less than 1%, marking the lowest quarterly growth in nearly a decade.
Among these, the series liquors’ quarterly revenue was 4.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.7%; Maotai liquor revenue was 34.9 billion yuan, with growth slowing from double digits in the first half to 7.3%.
This almost stagnant third-quarter report did not trigger an overreaction from outsiders.
This “calm” largely comes from Maotai continuing the established strategy in the interim report of alleviating channel pressure, so the market had fully expected the company’s proactive slowdown.
On the other hand, the broad slowdown across the industry in the third quarter reflects a consensus among white spirit companies to give up inventory pushing and ease channel pressures.
To further support channel liquidity, in October Maotai further relaxed its payment policy, allowing distributors to use electronic bankers’ acceptance bills to settle payments on all Maotai products except Feitian Maotai.
With the double-holiday stocking cycle, by the end of Q3, Maotai’s receivable notes balance increased 85% quarter on quarter, up 2.4 billion to 5.21 billion yuan, reaching 4.5 times the level as the previous year.
The surge in receivable notes to some extent also supported short-term performance: in the third quarter, Maotai’s wholesale channel grew 14.6% year-on-year, reaching 23.5 billion yuan.
However, the overall supply-demand imbalance in the industry remains pronounced.
A survey by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association showed that in the first half of the year, inventory increased for 58.1% of distributors, the average industry inventory turnover reached 900 days, inventory rose 25% year-on-year, and distributor stocks reached a historic high.
Because of major price fluctuations, Huazhi Liquor Store—relying on famous liquors like Maotai and Wuliangye—recorded asset impairment losses of 325 million yuan in the first three quarters, up over 114 times year-on-year.
The pressure from falling prices is spreading to the “base of the pyramid” for Maotai.
The latest wholesale reference price from "Today's Liquor Prices" shows the 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Maotai in original cases is 1670 yuan and loose bottles are 1640 yuan—down 120 yuan and 130 yuan respectively from a month ago.
Because Maotai assigns distributors an allocation system, when purchasing Feitian Maotai, distributors are also required to purchase a certain proportion of other series liquors at extra cost.
Taking this additional procurement cost into account, the industry generally regards the breakeven point for Feitian Maotai distributors at around 1800 yuan per bottle.
The current wholesale price is now well below this breakeven point, highlighting profit pressures for distribution channels.
To address the situation, Maotai pushed for provincial distributor associations to reach a “stabilize the market and price” consensus around June this year.
Multiple provincial distributor associations took measures such as restricting cross-channel supply, strengthening market inspections, and starting buybacks, with penalties up to supply suspension or contract termination for violations.
The problem is that, due to Maotai's pronounced financial attributes, enormous and unquantifiable social inventories have accumulated over time.
A significant portion of these are not parked within the controllable distribution system but spread among much broader market investors.
A July 2024 UBS research report estimated that between 2016 and 2023, products equivalent to 14–15 months’ volume had been stockpiled as social inventory, with an average holding cost of about 2079 yuan per bottle.
In other words, once the consensus of “ongoing appreciation due to scarcity” is broken, uncertainty in the entire pricing system will surge sharply.
Dilemma and Crossroads
Facing slowing performance and bottoming prices, Maotai Group opted to “change leadership” once again after a year.
On the morning of October 25, Maotai Group held a meeting announcing a significant personnel change: Zhang Deqin would no longer serve as Chairman, and Chen Hua, Director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, was named Chairman of Maotai Group.
This leadership shuffle marks the return of Maotai’s helm from “long-time Maotai hands” back to an external government official.
Given the special importance of Maotai’s performance to the local government, market analysis believes this move may reflect Guizhou Province’s intent to further strengthen direct control over the company.
According to Xiao Zhuqing, chairman of Wuhan Jingkui Technology, during a period of deep economic adjustment, Maotai faces a huge test: on the one hand, it needs to proactively slow down and reduce channel inventory-pushing in line with the larger environment, and on the other, it must meet Guizhou’s performance assessments for the company.
Xiao Zhuqing said: “It’s a dilemma. A government-appointed Maotai Group chief may have more leverage in communicating Maotai’s active slowdown to the authorities.”
Driving growth amidst a complex web of interests has always been the core challenge for all Maotai’s leaders.
Given that Maotai liquor remains the core business, growth logic relies on higher supply or adjustments in product structure to achieve higher ton-price. But in practice, pulling one lever shifts everything.
Differences in approach and the era’s context are ultimately reflected in ongoing corporate strategic realignments.
During Ding Xiongjun's tenure, Maotai drew attention for major channel reforms, “raising direct sales and reducing agency sales,” and diversified products like chocolate.
Under Zhang Deqin, Maotai returned to its main business focus and reorganized its marketing system for stability.
Upon taking office, Zhang reversed the previous heavy emphasis on direct sales and instead highlighted the coordinated development of direct-operated and social distribution systems, paused some enterprise direct channels, and tilted supply back toward the broader distributor network.
On the product side, measures like supply suspension, quotas, and strict output control were used to stabilize prices, while aged and zodiac liquors drove up overall ton-price and profit margins.
In 2024, Kweichow Maotai's distributor channel revenue grew 19.73% year-on-year, overtaking direct sales again after many years.
Distributor channels still play an irreplaceable core role in Maotai’s sales framework.
In 2024, Maotai Group sold 65,100 tons via distributor channels and 18,200 tons via direct-selling channels. Through allocation, the distributor network also helps introduce multi-category products such as series spirits, health liquors, and wines.
This year, the distributor roster has expanded rapidly. By the end of Q3, there were 2,325 domestic distributors, a net increase of 182 since the start of the year.
Nevertheless, from a long-term perspective, the trend of shifting the focus to direct sales is hard to reverse.
As direct-sale products are sold at retail price and are skewed towards higher-priced, non-standard spirits, direct sales now account for nearly half of the company’s total revenue and gross profit.
But this income and profit logic based on direct sales ultimately faces the threat of price swings.
Because non-standard products’ wholesale prices have reached historic lows, the pricing advantage of the official i-Maotai platform is being eroded. Consumer purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, and some demand is going to more price-competitive market channels.
In the third quarter, i-Maotai sales dropped 57%, dragging overall direct channel income down 14.9%.
When the profit margin in the secondary market narrows and the arbitrage rationale falls apart, the past growth story of the direct sales model cannot continue—sending Maotai back to the classic dilemma of balancing volume and price.
At present, hope for breaking the deadlock now rests with how the new chief will play the next card.
Risk Disclaimer and Liability ClauseThe market has risks, and investments need to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their individual circumstances. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. ```