Fertilizer shortages, rising oil prices, severe drought, and the onset of El Niño—global food shortages could erupt in as soon as six months!

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The global food supply is facing a grave test with multiple crises stacking up. Due to the blockade of the Hormuz Strait caused by the Middle East conflict, the fertilizer supply chain has suffered a severe blow. Coupled with surging diesel prices, historic drought, and the looming "Super El Niño," global agricultural production is under unprecedented fourfold pressure.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued an open warning this week: If governments do not take urgent action, a severe global food crisis could break out within the next 6 to 12 months. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) chief Alexander De Croo spoke even more directly—due to a sharp drop in fertilizer output, “in September or October this year, many parts of the world will face food shortage issues.”

This warning is confirmed by a series of data. US winter wheat production this year is expected to drop by 21% from 2025, hitting the lowest level since 1972; meanwhile, US spring wheat planting area will reach a record low since documentation began in 1919. On a global scale, before the outbreak of the Iran war, the number of people suffering from severe hunger worldwide was already at a historic peak.

Hormuz Blockade Cuts Off Fertilizer Lifeline

Iran's blockade of the Hormuz Strait is the central trigger of this round of the food crisis.

FAO warns that the blockade will trigger a severe global food price crisis within 6 to 12 months. Current government decisions regarding fertilizer use, imports, financing, and crop selection will directly determine whether food prices surge later this year or in early 2027.

Due to the strait blockade, millions of northern hemisphere farmers failed to obtain needed fertilizers for spring planting season. Even when fertilizers are available, the high prices deter most farmers. A recent survey indicates that 70% of American farmers are unable to purchase the full amount of fertilizer needed for spring sowing because prices are too high.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf recently claimed that the US is seeking to "launch new military action," and noted Iran is highly vigilant about US military intentions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also openly warned that if Iran is attacked again, it will retaliate "in places you cannot imagine," and cautioned that the war could spill into regions beyond the Middle East. This means the likelihood of Hormuz Strait reopening in the short term is extremely slim, and the fertilizer supply crisis may persist.

High Diesel Prices Add to Agriculture Costs

On top of fertilizer shortages, the sharp rise in diesel prices is further squeezing farmers' production margins.

Almost all agricultural machinery is powered by diesel. Currently, the average price of diesel across the US is about $5.5 per gallon. In agricultural powerhouse California, the situation is even worse—AAA data shows the average diesel price is about $7.43 per gallon, up $2.36 from the same period last year; in agricultural hub Fresno, diesel reaches $7.48 per gallon.

California's agricultural status is pivotal—the state leads the nation by a wide margin in fruit and vegetable production. The rapid rise in diesel costs directly drives up the production costs of agricultural products in California and nationwide, and will ultimately be passed on to consumer prices.

Historic Drought Hits America's Breadbasket

Meanwhile, extreme drought is causing severe damage in US agricultural heartlands.

In the first three months of this year, the US experienced the driest start to a year ever recorded. In West Texas, ongoing drought has caused ground cracks wide enough to swallow an entire hand. Local farmer Scott Irlbeck described how wheat planted last fall yielded almost nothing due to lack of rain, and he is now hoping insurance companies declare the crop a total loss to avoid the high fuel costs of harvest.

US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show winter wheat production this year is expected to be 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from 2025 and the lowest since 1972. Harvested winter wheat acreage is only 22 million acres, while planted acreage is 32.4 million acres, with an abandonment rate over 32%—meaning nearly one-third of winter wheat crops are given up by farmers before harvest.

Looking ahead, US farmers’ spring wheat planting area this year will hit a record low since 1919. Worth noting, in 1919 the US population was just 104 million, whereas today it has passed 340 million, rapidly widening the gap between food demand and supply.

"Super El Niño" May Be the Last Straw for Food Systems

Beyond these multiple pressures, an even greater climate variable is approaching—the "Super El Niño."

The El Niño phenomenon is caused by abnormal warming of equatorial Pacific ocean waters, leading to significant changes in climate patterns across many regions. The US National Weather Service (NWS) has issued warnings. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Albany University, stated that the probability this "Super El Niño" becomes the strongest El Niño event ever is about 50%—"just a few weeks ago, my estimate was only around 20%."

Historical precedents are alarming. The "Super El Niño" of 1877-1878 triggered a massive global famine, causing more than 50 million deaths. FAO points out that the impending "Super El Niño" may cause even more severe consequences, putting further pressure on the already fragile global food production system weakened by fertilizer shortages and drought.

The impact of the food crisis is not just in predictions; some regions are already in a dire situation. United Nations data show that even before the outbreak of Middle East war, the number of people suffering severe hunger globally had already reached its highest level in history. As the effects of fertilizer shortages become fully apparent during this autumn’s harvest season, the global food supply gap will further widen and food security may deteriorate rapidly in the coming months.

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