First batch after US-Iran ceasefire! Two cargo ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, 800 giant ships still waiting in line

First batch after US-Iran ceasefire! Two cargo ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, 800 giant ships still waiting in line

Less than 48 hours after the ceasefire agreement took effect, the first batch of transit vessels appeared in the Strait of Hormuz, but obstacles to passage are far from eliminated. Iran insists on charging transit fees for vessels and retaining control, which fundamentally clashes with the international community's convention of treating the strait as a free international waterway. More than 800 commercial vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf remain in observation.

According to CCTV News, on April 8 local time, ship tracking website MarineTraffic recorded the first batch of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. It is understood that the Greek bulk carrier "NJ Earth" passed the strait at 8:44 Greenwich Mean Time, while the "Daytona Beach" sailing under the Liberian flag passed at 6:59 GMT, having left Abbas port at 5:28 GMT previously.

This is the first batch of large vessels passing through this critical waterway since the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement.

However, the transit of these two vessels has not opened the floodgates for passage. The Iranian side stated it will require transiting oil tankers to pay a transit fee of $1 per barrel in Bitcoin and that all vessels will be individually reviewed. Meanwhile, ships inside the Persian Gulf received radio warnings stating that unauthorized transit without Iranian approval will result in military action. The world's second-largest shipping company Maersk said it is "urgently" clarifying the transit terms, but has yet to make adjustments to specific routes.

First vessels transit, but backlog situation is unlikely to be quickly alleviated

The successful transit of two vessels is the first positive signal after the ceasefire agreement was announced, but the scale is far from pre-war levels. According to MarineTraffic data, there are still hundreds of vessels stranded in the region, including 426 oil tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and 19 liquefied natural gas carriers.

Kpler data shows about 187 oil tankers within the Persian Gulf are loaded with approximately 175 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Whether these shipments can smoothly transit will largely determine the short-term trends in the global energy supply chain.

Martin Kelly, head of EOS Risk Consulting, a maritime intelligence agency, said only a maximum of 10-15 ships per day can complete transit review processes, far below the pre-war normal level of about 135 ships daily. He believes it is "absolutely impossible" to clear all the backlog within two weeks.

Iran insists on fees and control, terms divergence remains the biggest obstacle

The biggest uncertainty in passage prospects comes from the completely different statements of both sides regarding the ceasefire terms. Trump previously stated he would achieve "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of Hormuz, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared this was a two-week safe transit arrangement coordinated with armed forces and with "technical restrictions" as preconditions.

Regarding fees, Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran's Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters Union, told the UK "Financial Times" that each transiting oil tanker must send an email to Iranian authorities declaring its cargo, upon which Iran will notify the fees to be paid at a rate of $1 per barrel; empty tankers can transit free of charge. He said Iran needs to monitor in-and-out cargoes of the strait to ensure no arms are transported during the ceasefire. "Everything can pass, but the review process for each ship takes time, and Iran will not hurry," Hosseini said.

Hosseini also said payment must be completed "within seconds" via Bitcoin to avoid sanctions tracking. Trump said in a CBS interview Wednesday that the US and Iran might have a joint arrangement to collect transit fees in Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. Internationally, it has always been regarded as an international waterway, and transit fees have never been charged. If the fee terms are implemented, it will set a new precedent for passage rules of this important waterway.

Gulf states strongly oppose, regional power dynamics complicated

Iran's intention to retain control over Hormuz is drawing strong resistance from Gulf states and potentially impacting power dynamics within OPEC+.

Oman's Minister of Transport stated that Oman’s position is clear: the Strait of Hormuz is a naturally formed channel, and according to international maritime transport agreements signed by Oman, charging fees is not permitted.

Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal family, said Saudi Arabia will demand "unimpeded" access to global markets and "allowing Iran to have any form of control over the strait will be a red line."

Analysts warned that if Iran secures substantive control over Hormuz, it will fundamentally change the power balance within OPEC+, giving Tehran potential veto power over rivals' exports. Meanwhile, according to sources, despite the ceasefire agreement, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline used to reroute oil exports to the Red Sea was hit by drone strikes on Wednesday.

Shipowners observing, US Navy escort may become key catalyst

With the terms still unclear, western shipowners are generally taking a cautious stance. Maersk said, "The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but has not yet provided complete maritime certainty," and will continue to be "cautious" about cargo, not adjusting specific routes for now.

WallstreetCN previously reported, JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva pointed out in a report released on the eve of the ceasefire announcement that even during the blockade, oil flows through Hormuz have not been zero, and passage for "friendly nations" ships maintained about 15% of average pre-war levels. She believes the blockade has gradually evolved from a tactical tool of pressure for Iran into a "strategic target with potential economic and financial benefits," and Iran will seek to formalize and make it permanent. JPMorgan therefore judges that even if Iran eventually allows increased flow, "it will most likely be controlled, fee-based and conditional."

The industry generally believes that whether the US Navy can provide escorts for transiting vessels will be a key catalyst for substantive recovery of shipping flows. Reports indicate that the US has doubled the reinsurance guarantees offered to vessels willing to transit Hormuz to $40 billion and has introduced new insurance partners, including AIG and Berkshire Hathaway.

Currently, about 20,000 civilian seafarers are stranded on detained vessels and supporting ships, facing material shortages and psychological pressure, and UN agencies have issued warnings. Whether this two-week ceasefire window can be transformed into substantive passage recovery still depends on whether the US and Iran can bridge differences on core terms.

Risk warnings and disclaimer clausesThe market carries risks and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.