First meeting in a year and a half! Trump plans to intensify offensive, Brent oil surges past $85

March 3, Brent crude oil prices broke through $85/barrel for the first time since July 2024. The rapid escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the complete disruption of oil and gas transport through the Strait of Hormuz are the core factors driving this round of price surge, resulting in intense volatility in the global energy market. According to CCTV News reports, Trump stated that the US side will "achieve its goals at all costs"; Secretary of State Marco Rubio also clearly stated that current military operations will be further strengthened. These two tough statements caused a strong reaction in the market, directly pushing oil prices to break through key thresholds. The core of this round of turmoil in the energy market lies in the disruption of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Bloomberg analysis, if the blockage of this key waterway persists for a long time, it may force oil-producing countries in the region to reduce production, leading to further upward risk in oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing for emergency action, planning to deploy one billion barrels of emergency stock to stabilize the market. Despite the global energy alert, the White House currently has no plans to use strategic reserves. Crude Oil Supply Buffer is Limited, Market Awaiting Outcome of Conflict An advisor to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard told Iran’s official television station that relevant forces “will ignite any ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz,” a tough statement that sharply heightened market concerns about transport security. Although surpluses in other regions temporarily provide some buffer for oil prices, Bloomberg analysis shows that all current oil market indicators reflect a highly tense supply situation. If the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reversed in the short term, oil-producing countries in the region may be forced to reduce production, further tightening crude oil supply. Documents Show International Energy Agency Ready to Assist in Stabilizing Market A document seen by Bloomberg News, prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA), indicates that the agency is prepared to assist in stabilizing the global oil market in the event of conflict involving Iran and notes that member countries possess over one billion barrels of emergency stock. In the March 2 document, the IEA stated that although overall oil production in the region has not been significantly affected, transport through the Strait of Hormuz and liquefied natural gas production have already been “significantly affected.” The report, citing informed sources, says the IEA is scheduled to hold a meeting at 2 p.m. Paris time to discuss the Middle East situation. The agency coordinates releases from global oil inventories when the market is disturbed. Despite oil prices rising significantly since the outbreak of the conflict, the media cited an informed source saying that the Trump administration currently has no plans to immediately use the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks; please invest cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their particular situation. Any investment based on this is at your own risk.