First price increase in two and a half years—Moutai becomes more "market-oriented"

First price increase in two and a half years—Moutai becomes more "market-oriented"

On March 30, Guizhou Moutai released an announcement, declaring an increase in the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai (2026 edition).

Specific range: The ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai is raised by about 8.6%, increasing from 1169 yuan/bottle to 1269 yuan/bottle; the recommended retail price for direct sales channels is raised from 1499 yuan to 1539 yuan/bottle, an increase of about 2.7%. Effective immediately as of March 31, 2026.

The last ex-factory price adjustment was on November 1, 2023, when it was raised from 969 yuan to 1169 yuan. After two and a half years, Guizhou Moutai has once again adjusted the ex-factory price of Feitian. Wall Street's two major investment banks quickly commented, characterizing this as a key milestone in Moutai’s market-oriented transformation.

On March 30, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest research report: This is "another key milestone in Moutai’s transition to a more market-driven pricing system," covering direct sales/wholesale/agent sales models, and adjusting prices according to market dynamics.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that this price increase "reflects Moutai’s assessment of real demand for Feitian, especially since the launch of the iMoutai platform."

The price increase is just one of a series of recent actions by Moutai, behind which lies a more systematic channel and pricing reform. Wall Street believes that, apart from the price increase for Feitian, Moutai is simultaneously advancing three measures: first, increasing the proportion of direct sales; second, reforming the fee structure for distributors of non-Feitian high-end products; third, lowering the ex-factory price of Moutai 1935 and other non-Feitian high-end products.

For non-Feitian products, earlier research reports show that Moutai has implemented a "consignment model" for non-standard SKUs—distributors receive about a 5% rebate after sales, allowing Moutai to obtain channel data, identify effective distributors, and control the pricing system of non-standard products.

Channels and Demand: Fundamental support for price increase

Whether the price increase can be implemented depends on whether the demand is real.

Goldman Sachs’ March 31 channel expert conference note shows that Feitian Moutai sales were strong during the Spring Festival, and channel inventory remained low—because April’s goods had not yet arrived. Experts estimate that by the end of the first quarter, about 40% of Feitian quotas in wholesale channels had been used, which is 8-10 percentage points higher than the same period in 2025.

For the iMoutai platform, estimates suggest that in the first quarter there were about 3.98 million transaction users. If each purchased three bottles of Feitian 500ml, platform sales would be about 19 billion yuan, with total GMV about 21.5 billion yuan including non-standard SKUs.

At the wholesale price level, experts expect that after the execution of April delivery, the wholesale price of Feitian will remain in the 1500-1600 yuan range, and will not fluctuate sharply in the short term due to the price increase.

How institutions estimate the impact of the price increase

Goldman Sachs: With a 60% time proportion estimate, this price increase is expected to contribute an incremental increase of about 1.5% to 2026 sales revenue and about 2% to net profit.

Considering that 40% of the wholesale allocation for Feitian in the first quarter has been settled at the original ex-factory price, the actual incremental increase mainly comes from the implementation of the new price in the second quarter onward. Adjust 2026/2027 EPS forecasts upward by about 2.5% each, 12-month target price raised from 1553 yuan to 1592 yuan (based on a 23.4 times forecast P/E for 2027 discounted to end-2026), maintaining a buy rating.

Morgan Stanley: Estimates the incremental impact of this price increase on 2026-2027 EPS to be about 3-4% (without considering further volume changes). Maintains an “overweight” rating, target price 1790 yuan.

Both institutions believe that the price increase will drive a rebound in wholesale prices in the short term, while mid-to-long-term wholesale price trends still depend on supply and demand.

Historical comparison: This is the smallest increase yet

According to historical data, this increase is the smallest among all previous Moutai ex-factory price adjustments.

Records of previous price increases show: Since 2001, the highest increase in Moutai’s ex-factory price was 32% (2012), and the lowest is this time, about 8.6%. The increase in 2023 was 20%, and in 2018 it was 18%.

Data on market performance shows that after previous price increases, Moutai’s stock price performance within one week ranged from -4.6% to +20%, and within 30 days from -17% to +83%, showing significant divergence.

Polarization intensifies in the baijiu industry, Moutai stands out

The background of this price increase is that the entire high-end baijiu industry is still in a phase of differentiated recovery.

Goldman Sachs channel experts pointed out that brand trajectories in the baijiu industry will further diverge. For Wuliangye, management plans to suspend shipments starting in April to clean up channel inventory and digest historical backlog. Short-term financial data will be under pressure but is conducive to returning to a healthy track. For Luzhou Laojiao and Fenjiu, experts are cautious, believing some SKUs are still being pushed into channels, possibly prolonging the recovery period.

In contrast, Moutai maintains a leading recovery trend in the industry with increased volume from the iMoutai direct sales platform, refined channel management through the consignment model, and strong Feitian sales.

 

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The above highlights are from Zhuifeng Trading Desk.

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