First quarter saw a 31% big gain, but in the first two weeks of April "halved" -- the "God of crude oil trading" took a major tumble.

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After a brilliant first quarter, "The God of Oil Trading" and legendary energy hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand quickly fell into the abyss.

On April 23, according to Bloomberg, informed sources revealed that Andurand’s largest hedge fund, Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced, plunged about 52% in the first half of April (as of April 17), wiping out all of its first-quarter gains, and bringing the year-to-date cumulative loss to nearly 37%.

Previously, according to a Wallstreetcn article, the fund achieved a strong 31% return in the first quarter due to a precise bet on the crude oil supply shock from the US-Iran war, with a single-month gain of 30.6% in March.

Analysts pointed out that the trigger for this severe setback was the cease-fire signal from the Trump administration seeking to end the US-Iran conflict. With market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions rising, Brent crude, which previously spiked close to $120/barrel due to a war premium, fell sharply and is now near $100. As a result, Andurand’s long crude oil positions suffered heavy losses.

Abrupt Turn in April: Cease-fire Expectations Caught Longs Off Guard

The geopolitical direction suddenly reversed in April. Although the supply shock itself continued, the signal from Trump seeking an end to the conflict halted the oil price rally. Andurand's long positions were hit hard under this backdrop.

According to reports, informed insiders said the fund fell about 52% in the first half of April, with year-to-date losses reaching nearly 37%. It’s worth noting that the fund does not have a fixed risk limit mechanism, which enables amplified gains during favorable conditions, but also exposes it to extreme losses when the market moves against their bets.

In contrast, physical crude oil traders benefited greatly from this round of volatility. Reports indicate that large oil trading houses, such as Vitol Group, Trafigura Group, and Gunvor Group, earned excess profits by trading physical crude cargoes amid the supply chaos.

According to Wallstreetcn, Andurand’s comeback in Q1 this year was dramatic. Data show that the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund rose 31.1% in the first quarter, with monthly performance highly correlated to oil price movements: down 4% in January, up 4.6% in February, and a massive 30.6% surge in March, which contributed to the bulk of the quarter’s profits.

Behind this performance was the historic supply shock triggered by the US-Iran war. After the conflict erupted, Persian Gulf shipping was disrupted, some production was forced offline, and the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to the most severe disruption ever recorded in the global energy supply chain.

On March 9, Brent crude oil futures briefly surged to nearly $120/barrel, marking a record single-month gain approaching 60%. Andurand’s long positions profited handsomely from this trend.

From "Oil God" to Volatility and Swings

According to a Wallstreetcn article, Andurand’s career trajectory is itself a turbulent history of the oil market. He previously worked at Goldman Sachs and the world’s largest independent oil trader, Vitol Group. Later, he founded Andurand Capital Management. His reputation soared for accurately predicting the oil price surge in 2008 and the epic crash in 2020, earning him the moniker "God of Oil Trading" in the market.

However, in recent years his performance has shown extreme two-way volatility: up about 59% in 2022, down about 55% in 2023; up about 50% in 2024, and then down about 40% in 2025. This pattern is repeating this year: a 31% gain in Q1, followed by getting "halved" in the first two weeks of April.

The 2023 setback was particularly illustrative. At the beginning of the year, Andurand forecast Brent crude would reach $140/barrel by year-end, but prices never broke $100. The OPEC+ production cuts fell short of expectations, bullish strategies failed, and his three-year winning record ended.

In 2024, before the June OPEC+ meeting, he fully closed all long positions in oil futures. The company stated in a letter, "Once we have a clearer view of the supply side, we will reengage in the oil market."

This time, with heavy bets on the Middle East supply shock, Andurand once again returned to the market by taking high risks for high returns. In the first quarter, the market was on his side. Entering April, the geopolitical scales tilted once again, and this oil hunter paid a heavy price.

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