"First year of the 'tariff war' yields little effect! U.S. imports and goods trade deficit both hit record highs last year."

In the first year of the U.S. sharply raising tariffs, imports did not fall but instead rose, and the goods trade deficit reached a record high, indicating that tariffs have limited effect on narrowing the trade gap.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on February 19, 2025, local time, U.S. imports rose to $4.334 trillion, the goods trade deficit widened to $1.241 trillion, setting a new record. The annual goods and services trade deficit was $901.5 billion, narrowing only slightly compared to the $903.5 billion in 2024.

Monthly data also weakened again at the end of the year. In December 2025, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit rose to $70.3 billion, a significant increase from November’s $53.0 billion, marking the second consecutive month of notable month-on-month expansion, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Wall Street Journal survey.

One key reason for the Trump administration imposing additional tariffs was to help reduce the trade deficit. The CCTV News app quoted the Chief Economist of Raymond James Financial Group’s Investment Strategy Department as saying, The performance of the 2025 deficit indicates that tariffs have little impact on the overall deficit level.

Goods Trade Deficit Breaks Record

In the area of goods trade, which was a focus of the Trump administration’s policy, the results in 2025 ran counter to the policy’s original intent. U.S. Department of Commerce data shows the goods trade deficit reached $1.241 trillion, up 2.1% from last year, setting a new record.

This result highlights that, even in the face of sharply higher tariff barriers, demand from U.S. businesses and consumers for imported goods remains strong.

Total annual goods imports were $3.44 trillion, up about 4% from 2024. This growth rate indicates that the scale of U.S. procurement of goods from overseas, from the Biden to the Trump administrations, did not see substantive change due to the policy transition.

On exports, U.S. exports in 2025 totaled $3.432 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, which is slightly faster than import growth.

Deficit Surges in December

The single-month data for December shows a new round of sharp volatility in trade patterns. U.S. imports for the month rose 3.6% to $357.6 billion, with a surge in digital device procurement as the main driver.

Computer accessories imports increased by $3.4 billion, and telecommunications equipment imports grew by $1.3 billion, leading to a total increase of $10.2 billion in goods imports.

On the export side, there was a decline; exports for the month fell slightly to $287.3 billion. Abnormal volatility in international gold trading was one of the main reasons, as U.S. gold exports in December were $7.1 billion less than in November.

In recent months, increased volatility in precious metals trading in financial markets has led to more cross-border physical gold flows, significantly affecting trade data.

Wild Swings Throughout the Year

In 2025, U.S. trade patterns experienced roller-coaster swings. After Trump won the election at the end of 2024, the trade deficit surged in the following months, as businesses rushed to import foreign goods ahead of expected tariff implementation.

When the first wave of large-scale tariffs actually took effect in April, the trade deficit shrank sharply, and in October it briefly hit the lowest level of the year.

However, as some tariff measures were rolled back and businesses adapted to the new trade regime, the trade deficit rebounded to more typical levels in the second half of the year. These sharp shifts reflect the market’s sensitivity to policy changes, and companies’ strategies in adjusting procurement timing to deal with tariff impacts.

Effectiveness of Tariff Policy in Question

Overall, the 2025 tariff measures failed to effectively persuade Americans to reduce imports. The scale of goods and services purchased from overseas for the year hardly changed compared to the levels during the Biden administration.

The goods and services trade deficit narrowed by only $2 billion, less than 0.3%, and this small change is mainly due to export growth slightly outpacing imports.

The data show that the basic structure of the U.S. as the world’s largest consumer market and net importer has not been fundamentally altered by radical shifts in trade policy. Tariffs have raised import costs, but the dependence of consumers and businesses on imported goods is difficult to reverse in the short term.

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