Food delivery fees may drop to $1 per order? Barclays: Autonomous delivery could become widespread in Europe and the US before 2030.

The high delivery fees and tips charged by food delivery platforms are shutting out more and more consumers. A recent Barclays report points out that autonomous delivery technologies are expected to completely reshape the cost structure by the end of this decade, reducing the fee for each order to $1.

Barclays Internet equity analyst Ross Sandler released a research report on Wednesday titled "Automated Food Delivery Set to Reach Critical Scale by 2030." The report notes that the maturation of automated last-mile delivery technology is expected to reduce the current platform delivery cost of $8–$10 per order, and the consumers’ tip cost of around $5 per order, both down to as low as $1.

Sandler believes that once the cost curve improves to this extent, consumer adoption rates will soar dramatically.

This prospect is significant for food delivery platforms such as Uber Eats and DoorDash and their investors. A sharp drop in costs could not only reactivate user groups lost due to price sensitivity, but fundamentally change the business model and competitive landscape of the industry.

High Fees Erode the Mass Market: Food Delivery Is Becoming "Luxury"

The high cost of food delivery has become increasingly prominent. Currently, the average delivery fee per order on Uber Eats or DoorDash (excluding tip) is $8–$10. With the tip added, the actual price for a common single meal, such as a Chipotle burrito bowl, is already beyond the daily consumption tolerance of many working-class consumers.

This phenomenon is changing the market positioning of the food delivery industry. Once seen as a convenient service for the masses, food delivery is now increasingly showing characteristics of a discretionary product or even a luxury item. User stickiness and order frequency are both under pressure.

Automation Pathways: Sidewalk Robots First, Drones Await Regulatory Solutions

In his report, Sandler divides the implementation paths of automated last-mile delivery into two main tracks.

The first is sidewalk delivery robots, considered a nearer-term opportunity. Currently, these robots have a delivery cost of about $5–$7 per trip, but as utilization rises, this is expected to gradually fall to $1. The second is drone delivery, which boasts faster speeds and stronger market appeal—but faces more complex challenges from regulation, battery life, and airspace approval.

Uber and DoorDash are investing in both directions, but both companies state that these businesses likely won't account for a significant portion of orders until 2030 and beyond.

Asia-Pacific as Reference: Low Delivery Cost Drives Adoption Rate Up

Sandler cites experience from the Asia-Pacific market as evidence. In some Asia-Pacific regions that have embraced low-cost delivery models early, consumer adoption rates have increased significantly. For example, in China’s first-tier cities, the penetration rate of online food delivery orders has reached 40%, far surpassing the US, with cost differences as the key variable.

This comparison provides a strong reference for the potential market space for automated delivery. Once delivery costs in Europe and the US drop accordingly, consumer order volume is expected to see structural growth, driving more people to choose ordering at home over dining out.

Clear Prospects for Cost Reduction, but Regulatory and Employment Resistance Cannot Be Ignored

Although the economic logic for automated delivery is clear, Sandler admits that the path to $1 per order and no tipping is not smooth.

The main resistance comes from policy. Automated delivery will directly impact the jobs of existing delivery workers, making it a highly politically sensitive issue. Local politicians and regulators may, under voter pressure, use legislative or administrative means to delay the rollout of automation, thus slowing the decline in delivery costs.

Sandler concludes that delivery costs are unlikely to see a substantial decrease before the end of the decade, with a key premise that automation technology must truly be integrated into last-mile delivery. But the direction is clear: lower delivery fees and no tipping are results that almost every consumer would welcome.

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