For 2026, these are the 10 questions that Goldman Sachs' top tech traders care about most.

After three consecutive years of strong returns and dramatic volatility in tech stocks, with 2026 approaching, Wall Street's focus is shifting from pure hardware speculation to a deeper examination of AI investment returns and the sustainability of market breadth.

According to the latest outlook released by Peter Callahan, top tech trader at Goldman Sachs, although the Nasdaq 100 ultimately rose by over 20% in 2025, it was not an “easy win” year. Callahan points out that while the “Mag 7” contributed a combined $3.5 trillion in market cap growth in 2025, this rate has shown signs of slowing compared to $5.4 trillion in 2024 and $4.8 trillion in 2023. Internal market divergence reached high levels, with over 30% of Nasdaq 100 components ending the year lower.

As investors increasingly focus on whether generative AI (GenAI) can deliver on its hefty capital spending promises over the next 12 months, market sentiment is undergoing a subtle shift. Callahan highlights that the current debate centers on the path of AI infrastructure spending—for example, according to Nvidia, annual global spending could reach $3–4 trillion by 2030—whether this is sustainable, and when such enormous investment can be converted into tangible productivity gains.

To clarify this complex market environment, Callahan listed ten core questions shaping tech stocks in 2026. These questions address not only sector rotations but also the fundamental logic of macro and technology cycles.

Ten Key Questions Determining the 2026 Tech Trajectory

In his report, Callahan explicitly proposed the following ten issues that will dominate the 2026 market narrative:

Where will the AI debate head? Will the focus shift to “physical AI” (robots, autonomous vehicles, smart glasses)? Which companies will emerge as productivity winners? How will regulation and return on invested capital (ROIC) evolve?How will (application) software companies repair their valuations? What sword hangs over the software industry in the next 12–24 months? Is it the end of seat-based pricing models, the rise of agents, usage challenges, or a commoditization war driven by large language models (LLMs)?What is Apple's storyline? Heading into 2026, is Apple a defensive growth stock or an AI narrative? Can foldable phones serve as a catalyst? Why is App Store growth slowing?What are the broad impacts of the commodity supercycle? Considering memory products (DRAM, HDD, NAND) and gold, silver, copper price trends, which areas still face supply constraints? Who can absorb rising prices, and who cannot?What does GenAI-driven “efficiency” mean? If it means layoffs, will the market view it as a productivity boost or a drag on the economy and nonfarm employment data?Which internet companies are the best buys amid margin and competition debates? For example, investors fiercely debate the outlook for companies like META.Has the turning point arrived for cyclical industries? Will 2026 witness reversals in housing, commercial real estate (CRE), ISM readings under 50 for three years, analog chips, or autos?Can hardware and semiconductor AI stocks lead again? Or will debates about gross margin, spending visibility, or intensifying competition dampen market sentiment?How will the market's view of large language models (LLMs) evolve? Will they become commoditized? Will it become a competitive market with many players or dominated by a few? Is artificial general intelligence (AGI) or artificial superintelligence (ASI) in play? What role will Chinese models play? Are we headed for productization or stuck in a “primitive intelligence” arms race?What are the current blind spots? What topics are absent now but will be consensus themes by 2026? Is it agentic commerce, the comeback for SaaS stocks, or specific use cases for AI-driven productivity?

2026 Outlook: Seeking Second-Derivative Themes and Mean Reversion

Looking back at 2025, the market’s most notable feature was “divergence.” Callahan notes that while volatility was low at the index level, individual stock volatility was extreme. Although tech stocks generally performed well, the semiconductor and network infrastructure sectors led by a wide margin and were seen as the most crowded trades; in contrast, telecom, payments, and application software lagged behind.

Looking to 2026, Callahan believes the Nasdaq 100’s return prospects remain solid, but upside may be stronger in the first half of the year. This is because the index has recently consolidated and faces a “wall of worry” over issues like the sustainability of AI spending—such low expectations often benefit market rallies.

On investment themes, Callahan advises investors to focus on “broadening” trades—moving money away from crowded AI infrastructure stocks into other areas. He expects investors in 2026 to seek the “second derivatives” of AI—that is, undervalued stocks that use AI to lower costs, improve product discovery, or drive new revenue streams, rather than just “selling shovels” hardware suppliers.

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