Former President of Samsung Semiconductor: Predicts Memory Prices Will Begin to Fall in the Second Half of Next Year, Chinese Companies Are Expanding Production Significantly

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While the memory chip industry is still enjoying a super boom cycle driven by AI, a former industry leader deeply involved in the field has begun to issue warnings.

On May 18, at the 285th forum of the National Academy of Engineering of Korea (NAEK) held in Seoul, Kyung Kye-hyun, former president of Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor (DS) division and current resident adviser, delivered a keynote speech predicting that global memory chip prices will start to fall in the second half of next year. According to Korea Securities Daily, this is his public comment on the direction of the current industry cycle.

Kyung Kye-hyun previously served as CEO of Samsung Electronics and is one of the most influential voices in the Korean semiconductor industry. In his speech, he said: "Chinese companies are aggressively expanding their production capacity. As memory supply increases sharply in the second half of next year, the market could shift, and at the latest, this situation will appear by the first half of 2028."

He cited data from several global market research agencies, noting that rapid expansion of global memory production capacity will directly push prices down.

Kyung Kye-hyun’s warning goes beyond prices. He further pointed out that if the return on capital expenditure for Big Tech begins to decline, these companies may reduce investments. Once this happens, after 2028, not only prices but actual demand for memory chips may shrink.

This logic is not hard to understand: The core driver of current memory demand is AI data center construction, with tech giants continually spending money on servers and building computing power. But if the commercial returns from AI investments fall short of expectations, capital spending will hit the brakes, and memory demand will cool accordingly.

Korea's Structural Weaknesses

While affirming Korea’s achievements in the memory industry, Kyung Kye-hyun also directly pointed out structural risks.

He said Korea has a clear market share in DRAM, but accounts for only 1.5% of the global chip design (Fabless) sector. Unlike Taiwan, Korea lacks a “full-stack” semiconductor ecosystem that covers everything from design to manufacturing.

His advice: Korea must transform into a deep tech manufacturing country, not only maintaining its memory advantage, but also building independent capabilities in system semiconductors, sovereign AI, and applying these technologies in manufacturing.

He also acknowledged the realities of competitive landscape: "It is difficult to compete with both the US and China in hardware and software at the same time. What’s important is to do what Korea does best and seriously consider how to introduce AI."

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