Former Russian central bank official warns: fertilizer crisis will trigger a global food price shock within 6 to 9 months

The near blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is turning an energy shock into a deeper supply chain crisis—a rupture in the fertilizer market, which may reshape the global food price landscape later this year.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former advisor to the Russian Central Bank, recently issued a warning on social media: The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a supply shock, and its impact will be reflected in food prices in 6 to 9 months.

She pointed out that the price of urea has risen by 25% to 30% since February 28, and the Gulf region has declared force majeure on contracts to South America and Asia, with about 1 million metric tons of fertilizer physically stranded in the Gulf.

Prokopenko emphasized that force majeure means the contracts have been legally terminated rather than postponed, and buyers must immediately seek alternative sources. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, warned last Friday that it will take at least six months, or even longer, for energy flows in the Gulf region to return to full capacity, saying the world is facing the biggest energy shock ever.

Fertilizer Market: The Next Domino of the Energy Shock

According to Bloomberg, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently warned that the threat of food prices to secondary inflation effects is no less than that of energy prices. He pointed out that during the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution in the 1970s, the intensity of food price shocks actually exceeded those of oil price shocks, and throughout the 1970s, food inflation almost always contributed more to the US overall CPI than energy.

UBS analyst Claudio Martucci also issued a warning last week about the chain reaction from energy shocks to the fertilizer market, suggesting that the food supply chain could become "the next domino to fall" later this year.

Sulfur, chemicals, fertilizers, and diesel permeate virtually every link in agricultural production. If the critical choke point of the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for several months, the risk of global food inflation heating up again will rise significantly.

Russia Profits

Prokopenko pointed out that this interruption in fertilizer supply provides Russia with a strategic opportunity.

Russia is a major global supplier of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers and, together with Belarus, covers about 40% of the global potash market; Russia and Qatar are the main exporters of urea to the United States; Russia exports over 45 million metric tons of fertilizer annually to the global south.

Currently, importers in Nigeria and Ghana have begun to place advance orders with Russian suppliers for the third quarter. Prokopenko believes that Putin's gains in this round of crisis may be far more than short-term oil dollars, but also a reconstruction of market share with deeper strategic significance.

Three Waves of Impact: Transmission Path from Fertilizer to Retail Food

Prokopenko outlined a three-stage timeline for the transmission of this crisis to food prices:

First wave (current): Surge in fertilizer prices and disruption of contract systems.

Second wave (Q3–Q4 2026): Reduction in planting areas, decline in agricultural output, and the most severe impact in regions like Africa and South Asia, which cannot procure in advance.

Third wave (2027): Food price inflation reaches the retail end in economies dependent on imports.

Prokopenko's assessment is that the fertilizer crisis will not immediately turn into a food crisis, but its impact will gradually become apparent later this year. This transmission path means that risk exposures for agricultural commodities, fertilizer producers, and food-import-dependent emerging markets are worth close attention.

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