France, Italy, and Greece join forces! Coordinating military deployments to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

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France, Italy, and Greece are coordinating military forces to respond to the escalation in the Middle East triggered by US and Israeli actions in the war against Iran. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed to commercial shipping, putting global energy supply chains under pressure and causing oil and gas prices to soar.

Bloomberg, citing a source close to French President Macron, reported that France has proactively contacted the Italian and Greek governments to coordinate on the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean. The leaders of the three countries have agreed to coordinate the transport of military supplies to Cyprus and jointly ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

Macron had previously announced the dispatch of an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean to maintain the security of maritime routes and defend Europe’s economic interests. The direct trigger for this coordination was a drone attack on the British air force base in Cyprus — the first time European territory has been directly attacked.

Currently, the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz has set off a chain reaction: Brent crude futures have exceeded $80 per barrel, rising by about 15% since last Friday’s close, reaching a new high in more than a year. The surge in European gas prices is even more dramatic.

European three-nation military coordination, Macron leads mediation

Bloomberg, citing sources, reports that Macron spoke by phone separately with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Thursday morning. The leaders of the three countries agreed on coordinating military supply deliveries to Cyprus and jointly maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

The Cyprus incident is an important backdrop to this round of coordination. Late on Sunday night, the British air force base in Cyprus was attacked by drones, marking the first time European territory has been attacked in this round of conflict.

The Cyprus government said that more drones flying in that direction were subsequently intercepted. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized that the Cyprus base was not used by US bombers.

Macron announced on Tuesday that an aircraft carrier would be dispatched to the Mediterranean to ensure smooth maritime routes and defend Europe’s economic interests in the region. This coordinated action among the three nations further elevates this unilateral posture into a multilateral military cooperation framework.

Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia accelerates diversion via Red Sea exports

While Europe actively plans, the vital Middle Eastern energy export corridor — the Strait of Hormuz — has essentially been closed. According to Bloomberg’s compilation of tanker tracking data, Saudi Arabia is redirecting large quantities of crude oil to Red Sea port Yanbu to maintain global market supply.

In the first four days of this month, five VLCCs (very large crude carriers) departed from Yanbu, totaling about 10 million barrels loaded. So far this month, Yanbu’s daily average shipments are roughly 2.5 million barrels, compared to just 786,000 barrels last month — more than triple.

Saudi Aramco said on Wednesday that it has been transporting exports from its main production region in the east to Red Sea ports via pipelines. Theoretically, the pipeline can deliver most of Saudi Arabia’s export volume of about 7 million barrels per day.

JP Morgan analysts point out that Saudi Arabia has the largest oil storage capacity in the Gulf region, and with the Yanbu diversion plan providing additional buffer, it has a stronger ability to withstand the Hormuz blockade than other Gulf oil producers.

Oil-producing countries face production halt pressure, energy market volatility intensifies

The disruption at Hormuz has begun to directly impact regional production capacity. Refineries such as Ras Tanura have suspended operations, Qatar’s largest LNG facility has declared force majeure and stopped production and exports, and Iraq is cutting output at its biggest oilfield due to full storage tanks.

JP Morgan analysts warn that Iraq has been forced to cut production first due to overflowing storage tanks, and oil-producing countries like Kuwait could face the same dilemma within two weeks. If the situation persists, production across this resource-rich region will be threatened.

The energy market has already responded strongly. Brent crude futures have jumped nearly 15% since last Friday, breaking $80 a barrel this week — the first time in over a year.

European gas prices have surged even more this week, partly due to Qatar, a key exporter, temporarily cutting production. The sharp rise in energy prices adds further strain to an already tight supply market.

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