From “AI Out of Control” to Comprehensive Regulation: A Worst-Case Scenario That Could Change the Rules of the Internet

Concerns about "AI spiraling out of control" are evolving into a broader regulatory discussion. Analysts believe that if the regulatory logic extends beyond limiting AI risks to include identity authentication, content moderation, and digital infrastructure, the ultimate impact may extend beyond the AI industry to the very rules governing the internet.

According to an analysis by Kit Knightly of OffGuardian, the current discussion surrounding the risks of AI is similar to some of the narrative paths in previous climate change discussions—first emphasizing the risks, then pushing for intervention measures, which may eventually evolve into a more stringent regulatory framework.

Based on this worst-case scenario, regulation may proceed along a gradually expanding path: first, raising the barriers to using AI services by strengthening control through payment, real-name registration, and content review; then, under the pretext of preventing AI from impersonating humans, promoting a "personality verification" mechanism to link digital identities with more online activities; finally, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of data centers may become new regulatory entry points, further affecting the cost of internet use.

For investors, this means open-source AI models may face higher compliance hurdles, and the regulatory costs of AI infrastructure may rise, while the advantages that large technology companies have gained through funding, technology, and compliance capabilities may further expand. At the same time, small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on generative AI to reduce operating costs will also face greater policy uncertainty.

Paid access and real-name registration: The barrier to entry for AI access may be further raised.

Analysts believe that potential regulatory measures may first manifest in raising the barriers to AI use. The model of free, anonymous access to generative AI may face more restrictions, and users may need to pay and complete identity verification in the future to use some AI services.

At the same time, the recording, review, and even reporting of user prompts to the government may become part of the regulatory framework. These measures may primarily be ostensibly aimed at preventing AI-generated illegal content.

The impact on the open-source AI community may be more direct. If model developers are required to register with the government, pay fees, and undergo review, the development threshold for the open-source ecosystem may significantly increase. The current discussions in the UK Parliament regarding the "Social Media Licensing Bill" are also seen as a reference case for similar regulatory approaches.

If these measures are implemented simultaneously, they may further increase the costs of AI development and operation, and strengthen the advantages of existing leading companies in terms of funding, technology and compliance, while small and medium-sized independent developers and companies may face higher barriers to entry.

"Proof of Personality": Digital Identity May Become an Internet Passport

Another potential regulatory path points to the long-standing anonymity problem on the internet. Under the pretext of preventing "rogue AI masquerading as humans," regulators may further promote the "Proof of Personhood" mechanism.

According to this vision, digital activities such as opening social media accounts, making online payments, and purchasing escrow services could all be linked to verified digital identities. Noema Magazine has previously warned that as AI agents expand on the internet, platforms may require users to verify their identity to prove they are real humans.

If this mechanism is further expanded, its impact could extend beyond AI regulation itself. Online activities that rely on anonymity, such as VPN use and cryptocurrency transactions, may also face stricter identity verification requirements, with regulatory justifications likely pointing to the risk of "rogue AI" exploiting anonymous online activities to evade tracking.

Data center tax and "carbon footprint": Internet usage costs may rise.

A further scenario involves constraints on internet use itself. Related analyses suggest that the high power and water consumption, as well as carbon emissions, of data centers may become the basis for policies that drive up the cost of digital use, and this could further extend to internet consumption by ordinary users.

Under this framework, "non-essential internet traffic" such as social media, streaming media, online shopping, and gaming may be included in digital account management similar to carbon footprint tracking in the future. Rising streaming prices, viewing time limits, and increased costs of "unlimited data" plans could all become potential policy tools.

For website operators, measures such as the "data center tax" may also be passed on to the entire internet ecosystem through hosting costs, and cross-border access may even face higher costs. Large enterprises, due to their stronger cost-bearing capacity and compliance resources, may be relatively less affected, while the operational pressure on independent media and small websites may increase.

It is important to emphasize that the above content primarily represents a worst-case scenario and does not constitute a confirmed policy path. Kit Knightly also positions the article as a hypothetical discussion, therefore some of the judgments remain highly uncertain. However, for market participants, regulatory expectations themselves can influence corporate decisions and valuations. Open-source AI platforms, small and medium-sized technology companies, and digital media reliant on anonymous traffic may all face potential policy risks.

As AI capabilities rapidly expand, regulation and compliance are becoming crucial variables influencing the competitive landscape of industries. If relevant requirements continue to tighten, rising compliance costs could further strengthen the competitive advantage of large enterprises and drive deeper changes in internet rules.

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