From "Data Fees" to "Token Fees": Which of the Three Major Telecom Operators Is the Biggest AI Winner?

From "Data Fees" to "Token Fees": Which of the Three Major Telecom Operators Is the Biggest AI Winner?

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The stock prices of the three major telecom operators have collectively surged for two consecutive days. The intensive rollout of Token packages is reshaping the valuation logic of this sector—narratives of the telecom industry transitioning from a traffic economy to a Token economy are being rapidly priced in by the capital markets.

In terms of market performance, on May 18 China Telecom’s A-share surged over 7% at one point, hitting the daily limit and closing up 7.74%; China Unicom rose over 5.5%, and China Mobile was up 2.43%. On May 19, the three major operators continued their gains; China Telecom again surged over 8% intraday, and both China Unicom and China Mobile rose above 2%. The H-share market responded synchronously: China Telecom-H rose 6%, China Unicom-H rose 4%, China Mobile-H rose 0.2%—all significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 1.1% drop on the same day.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, JPMorgan Securities (China) analysts Chen Qi, Yao Cheng, and Xu Wentao characterized this rally in their latest report as "investors’ optimistic view that the three major telecom companies will become AI monetization 'entities' and beneficiaries." The institution believes that beyond traditional mobile and broadband services, the three companies can now directly monetize AI Token consumption, helping ARPU recover, and thus maintain an "overweight" rating for the three operators.

This commercial model leap from "traffic billing" to "Token billing" is set to become the core mainline of operator fundamentals reassessment for years to come.

Token Packages Intensively Rolled Out, Operators Fully Position in the Track

The direct catalyst for this market movement is the three major operators’ intensive launch of Token commercial packages within a short period.

China Telecom was the first to launch a nationwide trial Token package at the group level, becoming the first operator to accomplish unified group deployment. Personal and family user packages are divided into three tiers: a monthly fee of 9.9 yuan, 29.9 yuan, and 49.9 yuan, corresponding to 10 million, 40 million, and 80 million Tokens respectively; developer and SME packages are monthly fees of 39.9 yuan, 159.9 yuan, and 299.9 yuan. On the model resources side, the package integrates China Telecom’s own Xingchen large model, Zhipu GLM5, and other domestic mainstream models, supported by both in-house and third-party intelligent computing resources. Notably, China Telecom’s product positioning is not simply tied to model calls, but embeds Token services into connectivity, security, enhanced broadband uplink, AI cloud PC, and other comprehensive scenarios, creating an integrated product for SMEs and developers.

China Mobile focuses more on platform and ecosystem. At the 2026 Mobile Cloud Summit, China Mobile elevated Token business from individual packages to a platform-level strategy, with the core carrier being MoMA (Mobile Model Access), its model service platform. MoMA has integrated over 300 mainstream AI models, including its own Jiutian foundation model, DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM, etc., supporting text generation, voice processing, and multimodal understanding. The platform enables token-concentrated operations via unified API access, intelligent routing, real-time metering, and streaming billing, and partners with Tencent, Alibaba, Huawei, and others to form a Token operating ecosystem alliance, using a "self-develop + cooperate + joint operation" model to aggregate heterogeneous computing power.

China Unicom differs in pricing. For individual users, packages also come in three tiers: monthly 15 yuan, 30 yuan, and 45 yuan, corresponding to 6 million, 12 million, and 18 million Tokens, with the unit price at about 2.5 yuan per million Tokens. Token packages for personal and team versions are already available on Unicom Cloud and its MaaS platform "Unicom Yuanjing," covering personal productivity, content creation, student learning, enterprise R&D, government-corporate office, and industry digitization scenarios.

JPMorgan points out in the report that cloud business revenue share is a key indicator for assessing AI monetization flexibility. 2025 forecast data shows cloud business revenue will account for about 25% of China Telecom’s total service revenue, 12% for China Mobile, and 21% for China Unicom. This indicates China Telecom’s elasticity benefits most from China’s AI Token theme and the launch of DeepSeek V4.

AI Capital Expenditure Continues to Climb, Token Monetization Paths Await Validation

JPMorgan believes the three major operators’ investments in AI infrastructure are still accelerating. According to the bank’s predictions, the three major operators’ computing power capital expenditure (covering cloud/IDC/AI) will continue rising in 2026, with China Telecom up about 26%, China Mobile up about 62%, demonstrating operators’ strong willingness to invest in the AI track.

JPMorgan advises investors to closely watch several key points: First, AI Token and cloud business revenue disclosed in first half and full-year 2026 results (refer to Alibaba’s disclosure of annual recurring MaaS income); second, new AI infrastructure procurement announcements; third, acquisition of big enterprise AI orders, covering MaaS, cloud, and data center businesses.

In just two days, the three major operators completed comprehensive positioning in the Token track, signaling the official departure of the telecommunications industry from pure traffic competition and entry into a new growth cycle driven by AI capability monetization. For investors, whether Token revenue can form quantifiable ARPU contribution in financial statements will be the core validation indicator of whether this logic can continue to materialize.

 

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The above highlights are from Chasing Wind Trading Desk.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial circumstances or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular situation. Investment is at your own risk. ```