From fighting together to fighting separately, the differences between the US and Israel are dragging America into a predicament!

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Trump announced that the ceasefire with Iran has lasted more than 48 hours, while a diplomatic crisis sparked by deep strategic differences between the US and Israel is quietly taking shape. Israel, exploiting loopholes in the agreement's framework, launched the largest military strike to date against Lebanon, pushing the fragile ceasefire to the brink of collapse and dragging a US eager to exit back into the vortex of conflict.

On April 8, within 10 minutes, Israeli forces launched simultaneous airstrikes on over 100 targets in Beirut, Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon. According to Xinhua, at least 254 people were killed and 1,165 injured. Iran immediately warned of risks to the agreement, while leaders of France and Egypt issued condemnations. Meanwhile, passage through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be fully restored; this strategic waterway, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, continues to pressure energy markets.

Under pressure from multiple sides, Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone, with the latter agreeing to launch negotiations on the Lebanon issue. The US State Department announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks set for next week. Vice President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this Saturday. Yet, Netanyahu simultaneously stressed, "There is no ceasefire in Lebanon," adding, "We will continue to strike Hezbollah with all our might and will not stop."

For investors, the direct impact of this rift is: uncertainty in energy supply is unlikely to dissipate in the short term, and geopolitical risk premium will continue to fuel market volatility. According to Bloomberg, quoting Western and Middle Eastern officials, if divergences between US and Israeli objectives cannot be bridged, Trump may face a 'confrontation with no clear exit strategy.’

Agreement Loophole: Lebanon as the Fuse

When Trump announced the ceasefire, he clearly specified the suspension of attacks on Iran, but did not include the Lebanese front in the agreement framework, leaving a key policy gap. Netanyahu quickly seized on this loophole, publicly declaring “the ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” and immediately launched the largest Lebanese military operation since the eruption of US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

According to Xinhua, on the afternoon of April 8, the Israeli military carried out more than 100 simultaneous airstrikes at multiple targets in Lebanon within just 10 minutes, resulting in at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries. Lebanon’s prime minister declared April 9 a national day of mourning.

The operation immediately struck a nerve among many parties. French President Macron stated on social media that Israel’s airstrikes pose "a direct threat to the sustainability of the ceasefire." As one of the mediators, Pakistan clearly stated that the ceasefire arrangement should "cover Lebanon and all other regions and take effect immediately." Egypt’s foreign minister also emphasized in a call with US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff that the Lebanese attack “undermined all regional and international efforts aimed at de-escalation.”

According to Politico, quoting a US official not authorized to speak on the record, "The US is the only country that can force Israel to act on the Lebanon issue," adding Washington "may only now realize this after what happened yesterday and the strong global response." In the face of criticism, Trump responded matter-of-factly in an interview, saying Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire “because of Hezbollah” and declaring, "This is another separate conflict, which will be resolved later."

Israel’s Strategic Calculus: Crippling Hezbollah During the Window

The logic behind Israel’s move is clear: to use the breathing space from the US-Iran ceasefire to concentrate military resources on a decisive blow against Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon.

According to sources cited by the media, Netanyahu has long resolutely opposed resuming diplomatic talks with Iran. Trump only called Netanyahu to notify him shortly before announcing the ceasefire on Tuesday night that Lebanon was included in the original agreement terms. However, Israel did not formally participate in the negotiations and was not adequately consulted earlier.

On a broader strategic level, according to informed sources, Netanyahu sees the conflict with Iran as an opportunity to accelerate deepening security alliances between Gulf states and Israel, believing that short-term regional instability will drive long-term geopolitical realignment. However, this judgment has not been confirmed. Some Gulf states, after suffering heavy retaliatory strikes, have remained cautious of both Israel and Iran, with their strategic vulnerabilities fully exposed.

Former Israeli ambassador to the US, Danny Ayalon, said, "Before the war broke out, Gulf countries on the one hand sought defense coordination with the US and Israel, while on the other hand tried to use diplomacy to ease relations with Iran. Netanyahu believes this war will help hasten the strategic alignment between the Gulf and Israel."

Domestically in Israel, opposition leader Yair Lapid fiercely criticized the current situation on social media, calling it "a shameful combination of arrogance, irresponsibility, lack of preparation and selling lies to Americans, undermining mutual trust between the two countries," and characterizing it as "military success turned into diplomatic disaster."

Hormuz Dilemma: Ceasefire Fails to Loosen the Energy Noose

For global markets, the most immediate test of the ceasefire lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal passage. Ship tracking data shows that the number of commercial vessels transiting the strait remains well below normal levels. Trump himself publicly complained on Thursday night that Iran was "performing very poorly in allowing oil passage."

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply. Iran regards it as its core bargaining chip in negotiations with the US. Media analysis points out there’s currently no sign Iran is willing to lift its controls without substantial concessions. The Trump administration has eased some sanctions on Iranian oil, but reportedly Washington still does not know what concrete compromises would induce Tehran to fully reopen this strategic waterway.

The complexity is compounded by the fact that passage through Hormuz is not a core interest for Israel, as Israel itself does not rely on this waterway for its energy supply. This means Israel lacks an intrinsic incentive to work with the US to prioritize reopening the strait—ironically, it is Israel’s continued actions in Lebanon that keep the overall negotiation atmosphere tense.

Inside Washington: Hawks Recede, Cautious Camp Takes Over

This external rift is mirrored vividly inside Washington.

Reportedly, during the decision to go to war, special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner were core advocates of a hard-line approach against Iran, maintaining close coordination with Netanyahu, believing Iran had continually stalled in nuclear talks without good faith—an important factor driving Trump’s decision to launch "Operation Epic Fury." In contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance held prudent stances throughout, warning that Iranian leadership’s resilience exceeded the hawkish camp’s expectations, and emphasizing the severe regional and global spillover risks of conflict.

With the ceasefire agreement now in place, the balance of power within Washington has tilted toward the cautious side. JD Vance will lead the delegation at the Islamabad talks this Saturday, with Witkoff and Kushner accompanying, but the agenda is now dominated by diplomacy, not military escalation logic.

Former CIA officer and Rapidan Energy Group CEO Scott Modell told media:

"The division within Trump’s camp has never been about war or peace, but about whose war objectives the US is actually serving."

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly emphasized in a statement that Witkoff and Kushner had honestly conveyed their assessment of Iran’s sincerity in negotiations to Trump, deeming that Iran "did not genuinely wish to reach a deal with the US"—this was one of the factors prompting the president to take military action. She made clear the two had not provided advice on military affairs.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Unfinished War Goals, Unclear Exit Path

In terms of results, the US is stuck in a dilemma: core war objectives remain unachieved, and the path to a peaceful exit is unclear.

According to US and European officials cited by media, Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile project have not been completely destroyed—the core goals of this military action. Iran has been seriously hit but refuses to compromise on core issues like uranium enrichment, with its negotiating team maintaining a tough stance. Meanwhile, US troops remain stationed in the Middle East. Trump has clearly stated that if a “real agreement” cannot be reached within the two-week ceasefire window, the US will resume or even escalate military action—meaning if the ceasefire breaks, conflict could reignite on a larger scale.

US and European officials say Israel hopes to continue military action until Iran’s core military capabilities are completely dismantled. Amid this stalemate, the US-Israeli rift is not narrowing, but widening: the US is eager to find a diplomatic exit, while Israel is determined to accomplish what it sees as its unfinished mission. Israel does not have a seat at this Saturday’s Islamabad negotiations, and diplomats say the path to a broader agreement "remains fraught with uncertainty, largely dependent on whether Israel is ready to shift from military escalation to restraint."

Former Israeli government advisor and current RAND Corporation staffer Shira Efron said: "This war was originally what Israel wanted, but it’s already evolved to have a life of its own." For Washington, this means a war whose agenda is to a considerable extent dominated by others is turning into a crisis that the US will need to clean up on its own.

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