From "Slowing Down" to "Accelerating"! Astra seizes 13% market share in two weeks; Anthropic considers launching a new model before its IPO to counter the challenge.

From "Slowing Down" to "Accelerating"! Astra seizes 13% market share in two weeks; Anthropic considers launching a new model before its IPO to counter the challenge.

Just seven days after announcing a "slowdown," Anthropic is already facing pressure to disrupt its release schedule.

According to Reuters, Anthropic is evaluating the possibility of releasing its new model ahead of schedule, given that OpenAI's new model GPT-6 Astra has seen a sharp decline in enterprise market share just two weeks after its launch. This shift reflects a reality: with the IPO countdown and fierce market competition looming, growth is taking precedence over security claims.

According to Reuters, Anthropic has internally discussed releasing its new model ahead of schedule, and sources also revealed that its AI assistant, Claude, is deeply involved in the development of the next-generation model. Meanwhile, the report indicates that Anthropic's IPO plans may be delayed until November.

The immediate trigger for this dynamic comes from OpenRouter's user data. About two weeks after its launch, Astra had captured approximately 13% of enterprise AI spending, while Anthropic's Fable series held only about 8%. Peter Walker, OpenRouter's analytics director, publicly released charts showing that since Astra's launch, OpenAI's share has rapidly climbed, reaching approximately 65% in the first week of September, while Anthropic's share had dropped to approximately 35%—marking the first time in two and a half years that OpenAI has surpassed Anthropic on this platform.

Astra reverses market share in two weeks

In early September, the two companies engaged in a flurry of releases. On September 1st, Anthropic released Fable 5.1, positioning it as the "most powerful programming and knowledge work model," and reduced cache read prices by 75%, aiming to solidify its enterprise customer base through cost-effectiveness. Just two days later, on September 3rd, OpenAI released Astra, with CEO Sam Altman stating that they were "working hard to get Astra into everyone's hands as quickly as possible."

OpenRouter's weekly token usage data shows that from January to June 2026, Anthropic maintained a stable share of over 50% on the platform; after Astra was launched, OpenAI's share rose rapidly, reaching approximately 65% in the first week of September, while Anthropic's share fell to approximately 35% during the same period. This reversal took only about two weeks.

For Anthropic, the problem isn't just the impact of the new model, but also the sluggish sales of its previous flagship product. Two months after the Fable 5's release, enterprise customers' willingness to upgrade to the highest-priced flagship version was lower than expected, with its market share hovering around 11% for an extended period. More users opted for the more cost-effective Opus 5. The arrival of Astra may even shake its position in the "good enough" market.

The Crack Between the "Slowdown" Narrative and Business Pressures

The context of this defensive move has drawn considerable attention. On September 12, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a lengthy article publicly calling for a slowdown in AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk subsequently echoed this sentiment publicly, stating that "Dario is right."

However, just seven days later, Reuters reported that Anthropic was considering disrupting its planned release schedule and launching a new model ahead of schedule. This shift exposed the tension between Anthropic's brand narrative and business realities: the banners of safety and responsible development could not stop enterprise customers from voting with actual usage.

For a company that uses "responsible AI" as its core brand label and is pushing for an IPO, releasing the model ahead of time is a commercially reasonable defensive move, but it also means that it will have to re-evaluate the "accelerated race" logic that it has publicly criticized within two weeks.

Priority Reordering under IPO Window

According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO timeline may be delayed until November, further reducing the company's room for maneuver in its launch strategy. In the lead-up to the IPO, visibility into revenue growth and market share is crucial for valuation and investor confidence.

Looking at enterprise customer data, the growth momentum of the Fable series has slowed down; after the launch of Astra, Anthropic's market share on the OpenRouter platform was rapidly eroded. Against this backdrop, launching a new model ahead of schedule is an option that Anthropic had to consider under the dual pressure of business logic and IPO schedule.

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