From the perspective of overseas mapping, the diffusion direction of the domestic AI market
From the AI rotation intensity indicator we have constructed, this round of AI market still has room to spread. By calculating the absolute value of the daily changes in the rankings of gains and losses over the past five days across 50 major AI sub-sectors and summing them, we have built the AI rotation intensity indicator to quantitatively measure the speed of rotation within the AI sector. When rotation intensity converges, it indicates that the market has formed a consensus on certain directions and the sector welcomes a major market trend; when rotation intensity rises, it points to divergence in the main line, accelerated internal rotation within the sector, and the market pays more attention to rotation and spread opportunities in low-ranked industries.
Looking at the relationship between the TMT index and rotation intensity, historical AI market movements show a clear “centralized rise, rotational adjustment” pattern. Whenever internal AI rotation converges and main line consensus forms, the sector usually experiences an overall upward trend; and each time the rotation intensity converges to a relatively low threshold, indicating excessive consensus in a few sub-sectors, the market adjusts and digests through internal rotation and high-low switching, causing rotation intensity to start rising and the overall market enters a consolidation phase.
Rotation intensity is still not extreme compared to market peaks in previous rounds, so there remains further room for expansion. Since April, the market’s consensus on the prosperity of computing power hardware has continued to consolidate, internal rotation intensity has converged, and mainline consensus has driven the market upwards. However, compared with rotation intensity in previous AI market peaks since 2025 (February 2025 DeepSeek market, October 2025 computing power market, early 2026 midstream and downstream market), the current intensity is not extreme, indicating that the current round of AI market is still in a state of relatively healthy, orderly internal rotation, and has not converged into only a few localized directions, thus the subsequent market still has a foundation for further internal spread.
In terms of diffusion direction, overseas mapping has become increasingly significant in guiding investment opportunities in A-shares. To this end, we have selected global listed leaders and constructed domestic and overseas stock price mapping indexes covering six major technology sectors (artificial intelligence, commercial space, robotics, smart driving, innovative drugs, brain-machine interfaces), as well as 52 major sub-sectors, tracked and compared regularly. Historically, there has been strong correlation between domestic and overseas index movements and turning points. (See: How does global technology investment map onto A-shares?)
In the past week, directions such as the domestic semiconductor industry chain (materials & equipment, EDA, chip packaging & testing, analog chips, memory) performed better than overseas, while overseas computing power (optical modules, switches, GPU, liquid cooling), midstream services, and commercial space still have further room to rise compared to overseas companies.
In the past month, certain domestic semiconductor industry chain segments (materials & equipment, packaging & testing, analog chips, EDA), power supply equipment, optical fiber & cable performed better than overseas, while PCB, some domestic computing power (CPU, wafer foundry, edge chips, servers, power semiconductors, etc.), memory, infrastructure (liquid cooling, computing power leasing), midstream software services, robotics, etc. still have further room for expansion and rise compared to overseas companies.
Source: Yao Wang Hou ShiRisk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article apply to their particular situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk.