Global Competitive Landscape of Humanoid Robots: China Leads Commercialization, Tesla Optimus V3 Most Watched, South Korea Catching Up to China and the US

Morgan Stanley believes that the humanoid robot industry is ushering in a key turning point, rapidly moving from the stage of technological demonstrations to commercial applications. It is expected that the global market size will reach $5 trillion by 2050.

According to ChaseWind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley stated in its latest research report that the global humanoid robot market is showing a tripartite pattern: China is leading in commercialization, Tesla's Optimus V3 is setting the technological trend, and the Korean government is increasing investment to catch up.

Specifically, China leads the world in commercial orders, with cumulative order value reaching 975 million RMB; Tesla's Optimus V3 has become the focus of global attention due to its breakthrough technological design; the Korean government announced the establishment of a 150 trillion won ($108 billion) high-tech industry fund and is actively catching up with China and the United States.

Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2036, approximately 23.7 million humanoid robots will be in use worldwide, and by 2050 this number will reach 1.02 billion, with annual revenue close to $5 trillion, about twice the combined annual revenue of the world’s top 20 automobile manufacturers in 2024.

It is worth noting that since its establishment on February 6, 2025, the Morgan Stanley Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen by 24.7%. The value chain of China’s humanoid robot sector has surged by as much as 92.3% so far this year, demonstrating strong market confidence in this field.

China Leads Commercialization: Nearly One Billion Yuan in Orders Witness the Industrialization Process

Morgan Stanley stated that China's humanoid robot industry is rapidly shifting from technological R&D to commercial application.

Key data shows a clear acceleration in commercialization: Major domestic integrators (including Unitree Robotics, UBTECH, AUBO, Zhujidongli, Zhipingfang Robotics, etc.) have announced total orders close to 1 billion RMB (about $140 million). The largest single order comes from Zhipingfang Robotics, which received a 500 million RMB order from HKC semiconductor display production base and will deploy 1,000 humanoid robots over the next three years.

Unprecedented Government Support: All levels of government have established various industry funds totaling about 187 billion RMB. At the national level, the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative has been launched to accelerate the deployment of AI-driven robotic technologies in all industries; local governments are also actively responding. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other places have set ambitious development goals, and are expected to form a complete industrial ecosystem by 2027.

In terms of capital market performance, China's humanoid robot value chain equal-weight index is up 92.3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the 37.6% rise of the MSCI China Index. Unitree announced it will submit its IPO application in the fourth quarter, becoming an important industry valuation benchmark.

Tesla Optimus V3 Most Watched: Technological Breakthrough Leads Industry Direction

Tesla's CEO Elon Musk unveiled the latest details of Optimus V3 at the All-In Summit. The robot is designed to have human-level dexterity in its hands and advanced AI to understand physical reality. This technological breakthrough has boosted sentiment globally in the industry.

Core technological breakthroughs include:

Revolutionary Advancement in Hand Design: The V3 version will have human-level dexterity in its hands, and Tesla is designing motors, gearboxes, and electronic systems from scratch. The company will display a new bionic tendon design robotic hand at October's Robotaxi Day.

Significant AI Computing Power Upgrades: Tesla’s next-generation AI5 inference chip has 40 times the performance of the AI4 version, providing strong computing support for advanced robot reasoning capabilities.

Additionally, the mass production schedule has been updated. Musk said the V3 is "the right design for mass production" and has been almost completely redesigned compared to V2. It is expected that "hundreds" of units will be produced by the end of 2025, rather than the thousands originally planned, and large-scale production will begin in 2026. When annual production reaches 1 million units, manufacturing costs are expected to fall to $20,000-$25,000 per unit.

In Musk's compensation plan, Tesla defines "robot" as "any mobile robot or other physical product using AI," leaving room for future product diversification.

South Korea is Catching Up with China and the US: $108 Billion Investment

In addition, the Korean government and enterprises are actively deploying in the humanoid robot field, seeking a place in the competition dominated by China and the US. The Korean government announced the establishment of a 150 trillion won (about $108 billion) high-tech industry fund, focusing on AI, robotics, and other areas.

At the corporate level, Hyundai Motor Group is demonstrating the potential of humanoid robots through Boston Dynamics and plans to build a robot factory in the US with an annual capacity of 30,000 units. Samsung Electronics is building its own humanoid robot ecosystem in both hardware and software, and is expected to become a strong contender in this field.

From a technological development perspective, Korean companies like Rainbow Robotics have launched the RB-Y1 humanoid robot for industrial logistics applications, showing certain technical capability. Although still behind China and the US in terms of overall scale and commercialization process, Korea’s traditional strengths in precision manufacturing and electronic technology provide a good foundation for development in the humanoid robot industry.

In terms of investment performance, the MSCI Korea Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen 29.1% since its establishment, the best among major indices, reflecting market optimism about Korea’s future in emerging technologies such as humanoid robots.

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