Global digital advertising leader may "change hands": Meta is expected to surpass Google for the first time

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The landscape of the digital advertising market is undergoing a historic transformation. According to research firm Emarketer, Meta Platforms is projected to surpass Google’s parent company Alphabet in net advertising revenue for the first time this year, becoming the world’s largest digital advertiser.

On April 13, according to The Wall Street Journal, Emarketer expects Meta to achieve net ad revenue of $243.46 billion this year, exceeding Google’s $239.54 billion. These figures are net of traffic and content acquisition costs, including Google's revenue sharing with creators.

Analysts indicate that the significance of this forecast to the market lies in: It marks the first substantive challenge to Google’s long-standing industry dominance, and it signifies that Meta’s advertising business model has moved from a runner-up to an industry benchmark.

The report points out that the core driving force behind this shift is Meta’s continued investment in artificial intelligence and short video advertising. At the same time, Google’s share in the search ad market is facing erosion from multiple directions, and its growth momentum is noticeably slowing. The stark contrast in growth trajectories between the two companies is reshaping the competitive order of the entire digital advertising industry.

AI-driven, Meta Advertising Growth Sets Records

Meta’s strong advertising performance is built upon the commercial breakthrough of short video product Reels and the deep empowering of AI technology.

Emarketer data shows that Meta’s global ad revenue growth rate is expected to rise from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% this year. Analysts note this accelerated growth is rare—typically, the larger the platform, the harder it is to maintain growth, yet Meta is showing an unconventional acceleration.

Reels is an important engine of this growth. Meta says its AI recommendation system boosted American users’ viewing time of Reels by more than 30% year-over-year in the latest quarter; longer viewing means more advertising opportunities. According to prior reports, Reels is expected to generate $50 billion in revenue over the next 12 months.

Emarketer’s lead analyst Max Willens believes Meta shows “rare patience” in product commercialization—whether it’s Reels, microblog platform Threads, or messaging tool WhatsApp, Meta chooses to nurture user habits first, then introduce ad monetization once user scale and stickiness mature; this strategy is now paying off.

The impact of AI goes beyond content recommendations; it’s also changing how advertisers create. Meta reveals that the revenue operating rate of its video generation tool reached $10 billion in Q4. However, this AI-driven growth offensive is costly—Meta’s capital expenditure this year is expected to reach $135 billion.

Google Under Pressure: Cracks in the Search Moat

Google’s advertising empire spans search, YouTube, third-party network ads, and more, but multiple pressures are simultaneously eroding its growth space.

Emarketer estimates that Google’s global ad revenue growth rate will remain at 11.9% this year, unchanged from last year, forming a sharp contrast with Meta’s acceleration. In its core search ad market, Google’s US market share is projected to drop to 48.5%, falling below 50% for the first time in over a decade.

Market share loss is coming from multiple directions: Amazon is steadily grabbing product search ad budgets from Google thanks to its natural traffic advantage as an e-commerce platform; AI companies like OpenAI and social media platforms like TikTok are expected to further reshape the search market in the next few years.

Google’s highly diversified business model also restricts its ad revenue growth to some extent. Although YouTube Premium subscription services generate tens of billions in subscription revenue, a large number of paying users no longer see ads, forming a structural gap in ad monetization.

It’s worth noting that despite the reshuffling of industry rankings, overall concentration in the digital ad market continues to rise. Emarketer projects that the combined market share of Meta, Google, and Amazon will rise from 59.9% last year to 62.3% this year, further solidifying the oligopoly.

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