Global markets in focus! 9 o’clock “nationwide speech”—what will Trump say?

At 9 PM Eastern time on Wednesday (9 AM Beijing time on Thursday), Trump will deliver a nationwide televised address regarding the Iran conflict. This is the first prime time national speech by Trump since the US-Israeli joint military action against Iran began over a month ago. Global energy and financial markets are holding their breath in anticipation.

According to media sources citing six insiders, Trump is expected to declare in his speech that all military objectives have been achieved and that the conflict will wrap up within the next two to three weeks.

Meanwhile, he will directly blame NATO allies for the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, demanding that European countries address this issue themselves. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel due to the blockade, putting ongoing pressure on the global energy supply chain.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump has instructed Vice President Vance to privately convey to Iran: As long as the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and other "specific demands" are met, he is open to a ceasefire. Vance delivered a "tough" message, stating Trump is "losing patience" and warning Iran that failure to reach an agreement will result in increasing pressure on its infrastructure.

Announcing "Victory": Countdown to the End of the Conflict

Media reports citing six people familiar with the speech preparations say the core theme of Trump’s speech is to declare victory and outline next steps.

Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon summed it up as : "'I came, I saw, I conquered'—we’ll continue conquering for a few more weeks—then maybe a ceasefire."

White House officials said Trump will explain to the American people that the US is meeting or exceeding all established benchmarks in this conflict. Trump previewed this message several times on Tuesday and warned the Iranian regime that the US may still carry out "precision strikes" in the future.

The timing of the speech is rather delicate—about two weeks remain on the four-to-six week military timetable Trump previously mentioned. Meanwhile, an additional 2,500 US Marines are heading to the Middle East, signaling that military deployments are ongoing.

Hormuz Stalemate: Ceasefire Negotiations Stalled

The Strait of Hormuz issue is the key problem at the heart of this speech. On Wednesday morning, Trump posted on social media that the Iranian "new regime President" has requested a ceasefire from the US, but the US condition is "will only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and unobstructed."

The Iranian side immediately pushed back. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed the ceasefire request as "pure fiction," and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard claimed the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran’s "absolute firm control" and will not be opened to "enemies." According to Xinhua, citing content forwarded by the Iranian Supreme Leader’s office, Iran reaffirmed using the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a countermeasure.

The Strait of Hormuz is the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the outside world, with over a quarter of global seaborne oil and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas transported through it. The blockade has directly pushed up global energy prices dramatically, triggering widespread economic turbulence.

Condemning NATO: European Allies as Scapegoats

On the question of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has clearly targeted his European allies. On Tuesday, he publicly urged European allies to "man up" and "go get your own oil." He then escalated his remarks, telling The Daily Telegraph that NATO is a "paper tiger" and that he is reconsidering America’s core position in the transatlantic alliance, saying it "has gone beyond reconsideration."

At an Easter luncheon on Wednesday, Trump said America has "some very good allies and some very bad NATO allies," and specifically criticized French President Macron for refusing to provide ship support for the conflict. He also stated, "If a real war happens, NATO won’t show up."

According to media reports, a senior White House official said Trump’s anger is "very real," especially as countries like Italy and the UK have banned US troops involved in the Iran conflict from using their bases and airspace. This week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rejected a US request to allow planes to land at Sicily’s military base, saying it "fully complies with current international agreements."

In response, a senior EU official stated, "No one believes his narrative on Iran, that 'I always said Europe won't help us.'"

Market Focus: Can the Speech Calm Anxiety?

The political backdrop of the speech can't be ignored. Media reports note Trump’s approval ratings have continued to decline, the Iran war is broadly unpopular in the US, and surging oil prices and turbulence in energy markets have deeply unsettled Wall Street.

Insiders pointed out that this speech is a major challenge for Trump, "This is not his natural setting; he can’t be confrontational, it needs to be reassuring," and "it must be very direct, because he’s not only communicating with the American people, but also sending signals to Iranians, regional allies, and European allies."

Over 20 countries have already pledged to join joint operations to ensure navigational safety in the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict ends. But with no substantive progress on a ceasefire agreement and the blockade still in effect, whether Trump’s speech can truly stabilize market expectations remains to be seen.

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