"God of crude oil trading" returns! Andurand bets on Middle East supply shocks, flagship fund surges 31% in Q1

"The God of Crude Oil Trading" Pierre Andurand made a heavy bet on Middle East supply disruptions, went long on crude oil again, and his flagship fund surged over 30% in the first quarter, marking a strong comeback.

On April 2, Bloomberg cited sources stating that the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund rose by a cumulative 31.1% in the first quarter. This impressive performance came as oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude jumping nearly 60% in March. The price surge stemmed from conflicts in the Middle East deeply impacting the global energy supply chain—shipping was hindered and some production was forced to halt, triggering the largest supply disruption on record.

As the "God of Crude Oil Trading" who accurately predicted the oil price surge in 2008 and the crash in 2020, Pierre Andurand was once the market’s most steadfast bull. His bullish forecasts in 2023 failed, ending a three-year winning streak. In 2024, he withdrew from oil long trades, waiting for the right timing. In 2025, he was again hit, recording about a 40% loss. Now, he is making a comeback with a heavy bet on Middle East supply shocks.

Monthly divergence: The March battle defined the entire season's returns

According to Bloomberg data, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund showed distinct monthly divergence in Q1: January down 4%, February up 4.6%, March soared by 30.6%. March contributed the vast majority of gains for the quarter. The performance closely matched crude oil price volatility. In March, escalating Middle East conflicts and disrupted shipping in the Persian Gulf triggered supply concerns, pushing prices up sharply, and the fund’s long positions yielded substantial profits.

This performance was especially crucial. The fund lost 40% for the whole of 2025, raising external doubts about its strategy. In the initial outbreak of Middle East conflicts, the fund rose 6% in one week, while intense price swings caught many other hedge funds off guard. Subsequently, the fund successfully captured March’s one-sided oil rally, validating its strategy with strong returns.

From bullish to exit: Andurand’s ups and downs in oil trading

Pierre Andurand was previously an energy trader at Goldman Sachs and Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, before founding the hedge fund Andurand Capital Management. He gained fame for accurately predicting the surge in oil prices in 2008 and the epic crash in 2020.

As a well-known oil bull in the market, he forecast early in 2023 that oil prices would reach $140 per barrel by year-end. However, Brent crude never broke $100, OPEC+ production cuts failed to boost the market, bears repeatedly dominated, his bullish strategy failed, performance suffered, and his three-year winning streak ended.

In 2024, Andurand fully closed his oil futures long positions before the June OPEC+ meeting, holding a “mixed outlook” for the market. The company stated in a letter, “Once we have clearer insight into supply, we will re-engage in the oil market.”

From failed predictions to stepping aside, from waiting in the wings to striking hard, this “hunter” of the oil market has never truly left. When supply shocks return, Andurand bet on the bull again. This time, the market sided with him.

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