Gold and tech stocks have bottom-fishers, but only Bitcoin remains "down and out."

Technology stocks have attracted bottom-fishing capital, gold has rebounded after a sharp drop, but Bitcoin has been “falling alone”, remaining “unable to recover.” What’s really happening here? Why is the once-glorious cryptocurrency market now “too miserable to look at”?

On Friday (November 14), the US stock market saw a dramatic reversal: following a panic-driven sell-off at the open, funds rushed to buy technology stocks, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 strongly bounced back after touching key technical support levels. Gold, after plunging more than $150 intraday, rebounded to around $4,080. Yet Bitcoin was the obvious exception: it dropped 5% on the day, breaking through the $94,000 mark and hitting a six-month low.

This marks Bitcoin’s third consecutive week of declines, and its fifth decline in the past six weeks. What’s even more shocking is that since the flash crash on October 10, the reverberations in the cryptocurrency market show no signs of abating—total market capitalization loss across all cryptocurrencies has exceeded $1 trillion.

The contrast highlights Bitcoin’s unusual predicament: while maintaining a high correlation of 0.8 with the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin exhibits an asymmetric trait of “falling more, rising less.” What’s worth noting is, according to a Wallstreetcn article, the crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 15, the lowest since February this year, and the last time it fell below 20, Bitcoin dropped 25% within a month.

Meanwhile, multiple factors are jointly suppressing Bitcoin. Long-term holders have sold about 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, the highest record since early 2024; dried-up market liquidity has led to five consecutive weeks of net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Even the Trump family’s crypto-related wealth hasn’t been spared, with their World Liberty Financial tokens and American Bitcoin shares both down about 30% from their highs.

Tech Stocks Stage a Counterattack, Bitcoin Plunges Against the Trend

Friday’s market can truly be described as “ice and fire”. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices rebounded quickly after hitting the 50-day moving average support, and small-cap stocks also found support at the 100-day moving average. According to Goldman Sachs trader Scott Rubner, market sentiment underwent a dramatic shift: “absolute panic” from 4 AM to 9:30 AM, moving to a “strong recovery” from 10 AM to 11 AM.

Such a V-shaped reversal is not coincidence. Goldman Sachs data shows that after the S&P 500 falls at least 1.5% in one day in 2025, it averages a rebound of 1.1% the next day.

ETF trading activity dominated early morning bottom-fishing, accounting for 37% of the day’s volume, far above the annual average of 27%. The tech giants “Mag7” index powerfully rebounded after touching the 50-day moving average, ending the week flat, with hedge fund covering demand at the 96th percentile.

But Bitcoin was totally absent from this rebound feast. On Friday, Bitcoin fell 5%, touched a low of $94,519, the lowest since May 6, and was down 9.14% for the week, the worst single-week performance since the week of February 28. Since peaking at a historical high of $126,272 on October 5, Bitcoin has fallen about 25% cumulatively.

This divergence is especially striking against the backdrop of improving market liquidity. Goldman Sachs traders said:

Hedge funds bought across the board, with demand at the 96th percentile; high-beta momentum stocks, the most heavily shorted stocks, and AI leaders all rebounded from a 3% drop at the open to close up 3%. But the Bitcoin market continued to be under pressure, indicating it’s facing difficulties unlike traditional risk assets.

A Distorted Correlation: “Falls More, Rises Less”

Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains high, about 0.8, but the relationship is distorted—Bitcoin only synchronizes with the stock market in declines, but is sluggish when it rises.

Data shows Bitcoin’s performance skew compared to Nasdaq this year is evidently negative:

When the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin’s gains are notably smaller; but when Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin drops even harder. This isn’t a breakdown in correlation, but an asymmetry—Bitcoin absorbs downward risk but fails to benefit from upward moves.

Moreover, this negative bias, on a 365-day rolling basis, has reached the highest level since the bear market at the end of 2022—right after Bitcoin had peaked in the previous cycle a year earlier.

Historically, this scale of negative asymmetry usually appears when market sentiment is extremely weak and prices are near bottoms, not at highs. What’s the logic behind this abnormal phenomenon?

Shifting market focus is key. In 2025, narrative capital that used to flow in the crypto sector—new token offerings, infrastructure upgrades, retail participation—has shifted to the stock market.

Large tech stocks have become magnets for institutions and retail investors seeking high-beta growth. Compared to the frenzy of 2020–2021, the marginal rise in risk appetite now flows more toward Nasdaq than digital assets.

This means Bitcoin has kept its high-beta attribute as a macro risk asset during downturns but has lost its narrative premium when markets rise. It only acts as the “high-beta tail end” of macro risk, rather than an independent investment theme.

Changing liquidity structure has widened this asymmetry. Stablecoin issuance has peaked, ETF inflows have slowed, and market depth on exchanges hasn’t returned to early 2024 levels.

This fragility magnifies Bitcoin’s negative reaction during stock market pullbacks, causing its participation in declines to continuously exceed that in rallies.

Crypto Fear Index Plunges to Year’s Low

Market sentiment indicators confirm this deeply pessimistic environment. According to Wallstreetcn, on November 13, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 15, the lowest since February.

This “extreme fear” reading is worrisome—the last time the index fell below 20 was on February 27, after which Bitcoin dropped 25% to $75,000 in the following month.

A report from market sentiment analysis platform Santiment shows negative discussions around Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have surged, with positive/negative sentiment ratios dropping sharply and sentiment far below normal levels.

This indicates negative discourse now dominates the market narrative, and investor confidence continues to be depressed.

Since the mass liquidation event on October 11, key sentiment indicators show market mood has never recovered and has even worsened.

Although Santiment interprets this extreme negativity as a potential bullish sign for a local bottom, the current price action still shows no clear sign of reversal.

Whale Selling Intensifies as Long-Term Holders Cash Out

As Bitcoin remains “unable to recover,” multiple factors continue to suppress it.

Reports indicate that the sell-off by “whales” (holders of over 1,000 Bitcoins) and long-term holders is a significant driver behind Bitcoin’s drop below the $100,000 milestone.

Blockchain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders have sold about 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days, the highest since early 2024. More crucially, whale wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 7 years have been selling at a pace of over 1,000 coins per hour.

This selling trend is “persistent, staggered distribution” rather than sudden and coordinated. Analysis shows many early holders view $100,000 as a psychological threshold—this is the profit-taking level many have discussed for years. Since Bitcoin first broke through $100,000 in December 2024, long-term holder selling has accelerated.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten, a veteran in the Bitcoin industry, said:

“Many early holders I know have been talking about $100,000 since I entered the space in 2017. For some reason, that’s the level people always said they’d sell some.”

However, the real worry isn’t the selling itself but the market’s decreasing ability to absorb it. At the end of last year and early this year, when long-term holders sold, other buyers stepped in to support prices; now this dynamic appears to have changed.

ETF fund flows confirm weak demand. As of Thursday, Bitcoin ETFs had net outflow of $311.3 million so far this week, marking the fifth straight week of outflows—the longest such streak since March 14. Over the past five weeks, total outflow reached $2.6 billion, second only to the $3.3 billion drawn out over the five weeks ended March 28.

The Trump Family’s Wealth Also Hit Hard

With the turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, the Trump family’s gains from crypto have also been shrinking.

In the one month following Bitcoin’s high of $126,272 on October 5, all of Trump’s and his family's crypto-related stocks and tokens have dropped sharply.

The Trump family’s crypto investments include Trump Media & Technology Group, blockchain company World Liberty Financial, and Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin. World Liberty Financial tokens, American Bitcoin and DJT stocks have all dropped about 30% since Bitcoin’s October peak.

According to President Trump’s mid-June government financial disclosure, he holds almost 115 million shares of DJT through a revocable trust under his son Don Jr., now worth about $1.3 billion at Friday’s prices, a sharp drop from nearly $2 billion in early October.

World Liberty's website shows Trump and his family hold about 22.5 billion World Liberty Financial tokens, now worth about $3.4 billion, down from the $4.5 billion peak. Eric Trump holds 7.5% of American Bitcoin, which is now worth $340 million, down from $480 million at its high.

Despite many efforts by the Trump administration to boost the crypto industry—including establishing a Bitcoin “strategic reserve” and causing the U.S. SEC to dismiss lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance—these favorable policies have failed to prevent a substantial market correction.

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