Gold keeps falling, but Rockefeller strategists remain confident: It will reach $10,000 by 2030!

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Recently, gold price volatility has intensified, but institutions’ long-term bullish logic remains unshaken.

Doug Moglia, macro and market strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, made it clear in his latest report that the long-term bull market structure for gold remains intact, with the gold price expected to break through $5,500 in 2027 and reach $8,000 before 2030, while overshooting scenarios may see it surge to $10,000.

Moglia characterizes this round’s gold bull market as the third long-term bull market since the 1970s, believing the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and the ensuing sanctions on Russian foreign reserves fundamentally changed the reserve management logic of global central banks. Gold, as a global macro asset with no issuer and no counterparty risk, has become the biggest beneficiary of this systemic shift. He also warns that as Western financial investors enter the market on a large scale through ETFs and other vehicles, marginal pricing power is shifting toward momentum-driven capital, increasing short-term volatility risks.

This view resonates with the perspectives of analysts at other institutions.

According to a previous article by Wallstreetcn, Wall Street analyst Ed Dowd expects gold to reach $10,000 per ounce around 2030; “Wall Street prophet” and Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni also expects gold to reach $10,000 by the end of 2029, believing gold is not only a defensive tool but could also become a growth engine on par with equity assets.

The Third Long-term Bull Market: Driven by Systemic Change, Not Cyclical Fluctuation

In his report, Moglia places the current gold bull market within a long-term historical context.

He points out that over the past 50 years, gold has experienced two major long-term bull markets: the first started with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and ended in January 1980; the second began in February 2001 and concluded in September 2011, lasting roughly a decade. The current bull market began in 2022 and has only been running for four years, with cumulative gains of around 200%.

"History shows that long-term bull markets usually last nearly a decade, and the current bull market is still in its early stages," Moglia wrote. He emphasizes that the critical conditions necessary to end this bull market—namely a reversal in gold’s status as the preferred reserve asset—have not yet appeared. "So far, there is no sign that this trend is reversing."

The core catalyst for this round’s bull market, according to Moglia, was the precedent set by Western countries imposing sanctions on Russian foreign reserves in 2022.

"Global central banks realized that reserve assets held within the US dollar-euro system face political and legal risks. This fundamentally changed how central banks manage their reserves and assess their sovereignty," he wrote.

Central Bank Gold Buying Sets the Floor, ETF Inflows Push the Ceiling Higher

The demand structure supporting the gold price has undergone a significant evolution in recent years.

Moglia notes that from 2022 to 2024, global central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, accounting for about 20% to 25% of the world's annual mine output. Entering 2025, central bank purchases fell to 863 tons, but Western financial investors flooded in via ETFs to fill the gap—global ETF gold holdings surged nearly 20%, pushing total holdings beyond 3,000 tons.

"We expect central bank demand for gold to persist, and the proportion of gold in reserves (currently about 31%) may gradually approach the dollar's share of global reserves (56%)," Moglia stated. He believes the price-insensitive nature of central bank demand provides a stronger price floor and greater upside room for gold.

However, he also highlights the risks: as marginal pricing power shifts toward momentum-driven financial investors, the chances of sharp market corrections are rising. "The sharp drop in precious metals at the beginning of 2026 is a classic case of rapid deleveraging following speculative build-up," he wrote.

Multiple Macro Risks Combine to Strengthen the Gold Bull Thesis

In addition to central bank gold buying and ETF inflows, Moglia lists several ongoing macro factors supporting gold.

The first is the risk that the US Federal Reserve’s independence could be called into question.

He notes that if Fed policy faces political interference, confidence in the US financial system and the dollar would weaken, benefiting gold and other monetary metals. Second is the ongoing accumulation of US fiscal risk, which Moglia believes could worsen before improving. Additionally, geopolitical shocks—including the recent Iran war—are increasing investors’ interest in gold allocation.

On the broader commodity cycle level, Moglia points out that electrification, AI infrastructure development, manufacturing reshoring, energy security, and years of underinvestment in capital are together making commodities an increasingly important diversification tool in investment portfolios, with precious metals leading this cycle.

Silver’s Upside is Capped; Mining Stocks May Offer Better Returns

Compared to gold, Moglia takes a more cautious short-term view on silver. He notes that in 2025, silver’s price increase exceeded 152%, far more than gold’s 92%, but then underwent a sharp correction in early 2026. The gold-silver ratio has reverted from the May 2025 high of 100 (the second highest in nearly 50 years) back to its long-term average range of 50 to 60.

"Given this ratio normalization, we believe silver’s tactical upside relative to gold is now rather limited," Moglia said.

He points out that although more than 50% of silver’s demand comes from industrial uses (including solar, EVs, and semiconductors), and that it has been in a structural supply shortage since 2021, its price is still mainly driven by sentiment, policy, exchange rates, and incremental investment demand; industrial supply-demand fundamentals have relatively limited direct impact on prices.

Against this backdrop, Moglia believes gold and silver mining stocks may offer a more attractive risk/reward ratio. He points out that the ratio of current gold and silver mining stocks to spot gold stands at about 0.7, equal to the 2020 peak, yet well below levels seen during the 2000s bull market, leaving ample room for revaluation. Meanwhile, mining stocks’ operating margins have reached nearly 40%, the highest since 2011, with the five largest gold and silver miners expected to generate about $20 billion of free cash flow in 2025, and free cash flow margins close to 30%.

"Unlike physical gold, mining stocks can both provide operating leverage to the gold price and generate positive cash flow for shareholders," Moglia wrote. "We see periodic market pullbacks as opportunities to build positions."

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