Gold prices surge past $5,100! Largest single-month increase in 40 years as global turmoil drives a wave of safe-haven demand.

On Monday, driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions and market turmoil, the spot gold price broke through the significant psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history, and further reached a record high of $5,110. Fueled by intense global risk aversion, investors are flocking into this traditional safe-haven asset at an unprecedented scale, ignoring high prices and showing strong buying momentum.

Gold prices surged 2.2% during Monday’s session, peaking at $5,110.50. So far, this month’s gold price increase has accumulated to about 18%, on track to set the largest single-month gain in more than 40 years. This trend continues last week’s strong performance, when concerns over the situation in Greenland prompted the biggest weekly gold rally since the financial crisis.

Market analysts point out that policy uncertainty during President Trump’s term, concerns about central bank independence triggered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell facing criminal investigation, and geopolitical risks in places such as Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland, have jointly formed the core driving force behind this surge in gold prices. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the “fear of missing out”-driven investment momentum is dominating the market, and the multiple uncertainties manufactured by Trump remain the main catalyst.

This wave of risk aversion has not only pushed gold prices higher but also led to a surge across the precious metals sector. Spot silver prices soared more than 6% to above $110 per ounce, and platinum also hit a record high. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index fell to a four-month low, while the yen appreciated to a two-month high against the dollar. Volatility in the forex market further reinforced the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.

Investor "Desensitization" to Price Levels

As gold prices break through key resistance levels, market sentiment has reached a fever pitch. Société Générale analyst Michael Haigh stated:

“We are crossing one threshold after another, much faster than I anticipated. People are no longer sensitive to gold prices because they expect this momentum to persist.”

This momentum is built on the record-setting performance in 2025. According to statistics, gold surged 64% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1979. Entering 2026, this rally has accelerated even further due to global turmoil.

Aside from geopolitical hotspots, trade tensions are also intensifying market anxiety. According to Xinhua News Agency, last Saturday Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it continues to pursue trade agreements with China. Such remarks have further spurred market demand for safe-haven assets.

Record Inflows and Central Bank Gold Buying Spree

Both institutional and central bank demand have provided solid support for gold prices. Data show that last year, inflows into gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) reached a record $89 billion. At the same time, global central bank demand for gold has remained at historical highs, making gold the second-largest central bank reserve asset after the dollar.

Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, noted that gold provides investors with an “option to hedge against monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty.” Over the past few years, many central banks have continued to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase gold holdings out of a need for reserve diversification. Although this pace moderated last year, the overall trend remains strong.

Looking back, each milestone in gold’s history has often been accompanied by global turmoil: during the 2008 financial crisis, gold broke $1,000; during the pandemic, it hit $2,000; and in Trump’s first year in office in 2025, triggered volatility and repeated breakthroughs of the $3,000 and $4,000 barriers.

Dollar Weakness and Policy Uncertainty

Currency market volatility has also contributed to the gold price surge. On Monday, the dollar fell 0.5% against a basket of major currencies, and even dropped 1.1% against the yen to around 154 yen. Prashant Bhayani, Chief Investment Officer for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, said “Dollar weakness makes dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, which boosts demand. The yen’s movements are particularly aiding gold and base metal prices.”

In addition, worries about rising Japanese bond yields and speculation about the Fed’s future policy path have further unsettled markets. Investors are currently unwinding dollar positions ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the potential announcement of a new Fed Chair.

Targeting $6,000

Faced with such sharp gains, even the most optimistic market forecasts seem conservative. Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific at JPMorgan, admits:

“Every time someone makes an aggressive gold prediction, that price is reached within weeks. The policy environment continues to signal uncertainty about a ‘new world order’.”

Analysts generally believe that there is still room for gold prices to rise this year, possibly heading toward $6,000. Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao points out that spot gold has broken through the $5,070 resistance level and is expected to rise into the $5,154 to $5,206 range, possibly ultimately climbing to $5,427.

Meanwhile, other precious metals are following suit. Spot silver hit a new high of $110.11 on Monday, extending its staggering 147% increase from last year; spot platinum rose 4.1% to a historic peak of $2,897.35. However, Alexander Zumpfe, precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany, reminds that although further increases cannot be ruled out under stress circumstances, such trends may be accompanied by sharp phase corrections.

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