Goldman Sachs: After the AI boom, U.S. "middle-class consumption" will take over as the driver of the 2026 stock market bull run.

Goldman Sachs’ latest viewpoint indicates that following a possible slowdown in the artificial intelligence boom, “middle-class consumption” in the United States is expected to become the key driving force for the US stock bull market in 2026. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider and his team pointed out that as US economic growth is anticipated, the focus should shift to companies benefitting from the expansion of middle-class consumption, especially in areas selling “betterment” and “experiential” goods and services. The team is optimistic about companies offering “Want-to-Have” rather than “Need-to-Have” products, such as upscale apparel retailers, home goods manufacturers, travel operators, and casinos. They believe that the fading negative impact of Trump-era tariff policies, stabilization in the labor market, and tax rebates resulting from earlier legislation will jointly boost consumer confidence and spending power. Market data has already preliminarily confirmed this trend: the S&P Retail Select Industry Index has risen 3.5% this year, with a cumulative increase of 8.8% since last November’s holiday shopping season began. This index covers companies such as CarMax, Etsy, and Academy Sports & Outdoors, reflecting that investors are shifting from the technology sector—which led gains in recent years—toward consumer stocks that previously underperformed. Rotation from Growth to Value Stocks As the valuation of artificial intelligence-themed trades reached historic highs, Wall Street is launching a structural rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. Bloomberg’s survey shows economists expect US economic growth to reach 2.1% in 2026 driven by consumer spending. This macro backdrop is guiding funds from overheated technology stocks to value stocks that previously lagged behind and are directly linked to the recovery of the real economy and middle-class spending power. Goldman Sachs stated in a January 6 report to investors: “Stocks linked to spending by middle-income consumers are particularly attractive. Value stocks will continue to outperform the broader market in early 2026. The real income growth of middle-income consumers will accelerate, which should translate into improved sales growth.” Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities International, noted that the core of this shift lies in the market’s repricing of economic growth expectations. He said: “The market is upgrading growth forecasts, and if realized, this would benefit traditional value-oriented sectors. Last year’s market gains were dominated by a very small group of stocks (about 12), but the current rebound is much broader in coverage, with funds beginning to rotate into sectors with higher volatility and closer ties to Main Street America’s consumers.” Retail Stocks as Early Winners Dick’s Sporting Goods has emerged as an early beneficiary as market style rotates toward the “middle-class consumption” theme. The sporting goods retailer’s stock price rose 6.1% in the first four trading days of 2026, reversing last year's 13% decline, and its strong start confirms Goldman Sachs and other institutions’ expectations of a consumption recovery. On Tuesday US time, options traders bet on its stock returning to the historic high of $250 per share at the start of 2025, with an $84,000 premium potentially earning up to $3.5 million in returns, showing the market’s optimism about its prospects. Goldman Sachs explicitly included Dick’s Sporting Goods in its favored “middle-class consumption” portfolio, which also contains six chain retailers such as Burlington Stores and Best Buy. They are likewise optimistic about healthcare, materials, and consumer staples sectors, believing these areas will directly benefit from the wealth growth and accelerated real income of middle-income groups. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this content is at your own risk.