Goldman Sachs buy-side research feedback: AI will remain the main theme in 2026, but the focus has shifted to TPUs and high-end packaging and testing.

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As the market is abuzz about an AI valuation bubble, Goldman Sachs’ latest buy-side survey report clearly states that AI will remain the main theme of the market in 2026.

According to feedback from more than 35 investors surveyed by Goldman Sachs in Singapore, the investment logic of the Taiwan technology sector is showing a trend of high concentration, with AI becoming the only direction to gain a consensus of capital, while non-AI sectors continue to cool down. Meanwhile, attention to the Google TPU supply chain and high-end testing and packaging fields has significantly increased, becoming the new focus for deployment.

Goldman Sachs suggests that investors should focus on high-certainty targets along the AI main line, but should be alert to the risks of excessively high short-term valuations in certain areas and actual demand falling short of expectations.

AI becomes the only clear main theme, non-AI sectors neglected

The research shows that investors’ attention on the Taiwan technology sector is highly focused on the AI field. The vast majority of respondents regard AI as the only direction with a clear growth outlook for 2026, while non-AI end markets such as consumer electronics and industry are generally considered "uncertain in direction," and related targets continue to receive lackluster attention.

It is noteworthy that investors’ interest in the Google TPU supply chain is rapidly expanding, stretching from core ecosystem enterprises to “secondary beneficiaries” such as testing and probe cards, bringing new investment opportunities to relevant niche sectors.

In addition, as chip design complexity continues to rise, the semiconductor testing segment is experiencing “structural dollar-content growth,” that is, the testing cost per chip is rising sharply, bringing sustainable structural growth opportunities to testing equipment and service providers, which forms another solid niche investment logic under the AI megatrend.

TPU supply chain favored, CoWoS under short-term pressure

In sub-sectors, market sentiment is clearly split. On one hand, Google TPU supply chain related targets are receiving key attention from investors. The Goldman Sachs report points out that semiconductor testing suppliers WinWay and MPI are expected to achieve a re-rating: WinWay is set to benefit from incremental demand for new applications of SLT (System Level Test) in the AI ASIC sector, while MPI plans to supply VPC probe cards for Google TPU in 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts that the two companies’ revenues will grow by 42% and 46% year-on-year in 2026, respectively, both maintaining a "Buy" rating.

On the other hand, the CoWoS equipment sector (such as Gudeng Precision and AllRing Tech) is trending more cautiously in the short term. Investors have two main concerns: First, TSMC’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance may be lower than current market expectations, exerting marginal pressure on equipment demand; second, the sector’s profit growth momentum appears slightly insufficient, with some funds turning to memory and other areas with greater profit growth flexibility.

However, the Goldman Sachs report notes that the market may be overemphasizing short-term fluctuations, stressing that advanced packaging still has solid long-term structural demand. With OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) contributions rising from 2027 and new technologies such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) driving equipment upgrades, this sector may usher in a new round of growth momentum.

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