Goldman Sachs "Double Eleven" Observation: Earliest Start in History, AI Significantly Improves Efficiency and Conversion

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According to Windchaser Trading Desk, as this year's "Double 11" shopping festival kicks off, Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung released the latest consumer status observation report on October 21, 2025.

The report centers on five key observations: the longest event cycle in history, the full popularization of AI tools, strong early sales performance, the impact of a new round of subsidy policies, and ongoing competition in the instant retail sector.

Earliest and Longest "Double 11" in History, Prolonged Campaign to Seize the Initiative

This year, major platforms have all significantly advanced the timeline for "Double 11". Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin started their events on October 15, October 9, and October 9 respectively, setting a new record for the "earliest start in history"; the entire shopping festival period has been extended to 31-57 days.

Goldman Sachs points out that this strategy will significantly shift consumer demand forward into October. Therefore, investors should not consider November data in isolation when evaluating consumption trends, but rather analyze October and November retail data together for a more accurate overview.

Comprehensive AI Empowerment, Efficiency and Conversion Rate as New Highlights

The most notable change in this year's "Double 11" is undoubtedly the full penetration of AI technology. From consumers to merchants, AI tools are reshaping the e-commerce ecosystem. Major platforms have launched AI functions based on large language models (LLMs), covering multiple areas including search, recommendation, customer service, and content generation.

Goldman Sachs reveals the driving force of AI with detailed data in the report:

Alibaba announced that AI functions are now fully implemented. The six AI tools launched have shown remarkable effectiveness in increasing click-through rates (total recommendation stream clicks +10%) and merchant ROI (+12%).

By expanding user behavior analysis duration from 0.5 years to 10 years, and increasing processing cases from 1 thousand to 100 thousand, the algorithm improved purchase efficiency by 25%. In addition, AI customer service has been adopted by 1.58 million merchants, saving an average of 20 million RMB per day for merchants.

The report also points out that Douyin is achieving an in-app transaction closed loop through its "Doubao" chatbot, while JD.com is using its "Yanxi" AI platform to optimize merchant experience. AI is no longer a concept, but a real core engine driving growth and cost reduction for improved efficiency.

Strong Early Sales, but Caution Needed for High Baseline and Subsidy Effects

Although the initial sales data released by each platform are strong—such as multiple brands achieving over 100 million RMB in sales in the first hour, doubling year-over-year—Goldman Sachs reminds investors to pay attention to the complex factors behind these figures. On the one hand, this year's early start compared to last year's late launch has created an "incomparable" baseline, which distorts the year-on-year data.

On the other hand, although the fourth batch of national subsidies has been introduced, its scale (69 billion RMB) is lower than the same period last year (150 billion RMB). After a high baseline last year, growth in categories such as home appliances has already shown signs of slowing.

Overall, this year's "Double 11" presents new features in terms of timing, technological application, and competitive strategies. While the macro environment and high baseline effects bring certain challenges, the large-scale application of AI technology is creating new possibilities for e-commerce platforms to tap stock value and improve efficiency. This is not only a consumer feast, but also a concentrated review of technological commercialization and implementation.

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The above highlights are from Windchaser Trading Desk.

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