Goldman Sachs: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for another month, Brent crude oil’s average price for the year will exceed $100.

``` Goldman Sachs’ latest warning: If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for another month, the average Brent crude price for the entire year will break through $100, and the risk of rising oil prices remains significant. On April 9, according to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs analysts including Daan Struyven pointed out in their latest research report that “the situation remains highly uncertain,” citing US Vice President Vance’s statement on the “fragility” of the ceasefire agreement and emphasizing, “We continue to believe the risks to oil price forecasts are tilted to the upside.” The report noted that since the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the outbreak of war in February this year, the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially closed to transit vessels. Although the ceasefire agreement is conditional on reopening the channel, the concrete details reached by both sides remain unclear, and the market’s assessment of the situation is highly divided. Oil Price Paths Under Three Scenarios: From $82 to $120 Goldman Sachs set out three scenarios in its report, each corresponding to distinctly different oil price trajectories. In the **baseline scenario**, Goldman Sachs anticipates that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume starting this weekend, and that Persian Gulf crude exports will return to pre-war levels within about a month thereafter. Under this assumption, the average Brent crude price for Q3 is expected to be $82 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in Q4. In the **adverse scenario**, if reopening of the strait is “delayed” by one month, Goldman Sachs predicts the average Brent crude price in the second half of the year will exceed $100 per barrel, with the full-year average also staying above this level. In the **extreme scenario**, if the blockade lasts even longer and regional production suffers losses, oil prices will rise further—Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent average prices of $120 per barrel in Q3 and $115 per barrel in Q4. The report noted that Brent crude reached as high as $119.50 per barrel during the current crisis, which closely matches the price range predicted by Goldman Sachs in the extreme scenario, showing that the market has already priced in the supply shock under worst-case expectations. The current price level of about $97 lies between the baseline and adverse scenarios, reflecting the market’s cautious stance on whether the ceasefire agreement can be effectively implemented. Risk warning and disclaimer: There are risks in the market; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ unique investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ```