Goldman Sachs investigates Chinese robot supply chain companies such as Sanhua: preparing for mass production of "humanoid robots" in the second half of 2026, with capacity planning reaching 100,000 to 1 million units per year.

On November 7, Goldman Sachs released an on-site research report on the Chinese humanoid robot supply chain. The report pointed out: Although no large-scale definitive orders have been secured yet, core suppliers have entered the “race to get ahead” stage, making extremely optimistic capacity preparations for the expected mass production of humanoid robots to begin in the second half of 2026.

According to Chasing Trend Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs believes, for investors, this means:

Clear Timeline: The common expectation in the supply chain is that the explosion of large-scale mass production will occur in the second half of 2026. This is an important anchor point for investment timing.A Test of Confidence: Suppliers are making tangible bets—through land, factories, production line planning—on the future of the industry. This “capacity first” strategy both showcases the supply chain’s strong confidence in a surge in client demand (especially from key players like Tesla), and also carries the risk of idle capacity if orders fall short of expectations.Value Chain Restructuring: Suppliers are upgrading from “selling parts” to “selling modules,” indicating that value within the supply chain is concentrating towards upstream, integrated, modular suppliers. Companies able to offer integrated solutions from actuators to sensors and have global production capabilities will enjoy stronger bargaining power.Key Monitoring Indicators: The report identifies two major events in the next 1-2 years for validating an industry inflection point: (1) Tesla’s Optimus third-generation robot is expected to be released in February/March 2026; (2) By the end of 2025/beginning of 2026, global humanoid robot companies will announce their order/shipment targets for 2026. These will be the litmus tests to determine whether current optimism translates into actual orders.

Capacity Precedes: “Military Exercise” for Mass Production, but Orders Await Confirmation

From November 3 to 6, 2025, Goldman Sachs conducted research on nine Chinese supply chain companies including Sanhua, Tuopu, Rongtai, and Shuanghuan. The key finding was that most suppliers are actively planning production capacity in China and overseas (mainly Thailand, followed by Mexico) to support potential mass production of humanoid robots.

These plans aim for annual production capacities equivalent to 100,000 to 1,000,000 units of robots. This is notably aggressive, considering Goldman Sachs’ own forecast for global humanoid robot shipments by 2035 is only 1.38 million units. This reflects the supply chain’s extremely optimistic view on the industry’s growth prospects.

However, the report emphasizes that not a single company has confirmed receipt of large-scale orders or specific production timelines. The commonly adopted strategy is “gradual ramp-up”—expanding production based on actual order fulfillment. Although this partly avoids imminent excess capacity risks, it is undoubtedly a bold gamble based on expectations.

From Parts to Modules: Automotive Suppliers Seek a “Second Growth Curve”

The report finds that the supply chain is undergoing a profound transformation. Suppliers are no longer content with providing single components but are moving towards integrated modules. Product offerings have expanded from single actuators to sensors, structural components, and more, aiming for ambitious market shares in respective areas.

A very clear trend is that these companies are all, to varying degrees, related to the automotive industry. They are keen to expand into the robot parts sector to seek new growth engines, while also leveraging synergies in capacity and technology afforded by their precision manufacturing and automated production line experience in automotive. For instance, Minth Group applies its precision forming and optical coating technologies from the automotive sector to robot head components.

“China Speed” Becomes Core Advantage, Mass Production Targeted for Second Half of 2026

In client interactions, many companies actively showcase their technical capabilities and scalable production readiness. They emphasize fast turnaround from design to product and agile service as core competitive advantages, aiming to secure and expand their market share within the supply chain.

The report repeatedly mentions robot clients like Tesla Optimus, Zhiyuan, Leju, and XPeng, and suggests these customers might prefer relying on external suppliers to launch mass robot production. The industry-wide expected launch date for mass production converges on the second half of 2026.

In summary, Goldman Sachs’ report paints a picture of the Chinese humanoid robot supply chain as “everything is ready except for the east wind.” For investors, this is a field of high potential coupled with high uncertainty. Closely tracking whether orders materialize in the next 18 months will be key to seizing this historic opportunity.

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