Goldman Sachs Nuclear Power Seminar Five Key Points: Rising Uranium Prices Become Consensus, Supply Gap Continues to Widen

Goldman Sachs' first nuclear power seminar sent a clear signal: the long-term upward trend in uranium prices is widely recognized by the industry, the supply chain is accelerating preparations, regulatory environments continue to loosen, and nuclear power is becoming the most prominent energy investment theme amid the surge in power demand from AI data centers.

From Tuesday to Wednesday this week, Goldman Sachs held its inaugural nuclear power seminar, bringing together top executives from uranium mining, nuclear power operations, and the supply chain. The event featured more than ten in-depth discussions focused on the outlook for nuclear power, supply chain readiness, regulatory developments, and deployment timelines for new reactor types.

On the supply and demand side of the uranium market, Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee summarized that the seminar conveyed a clear bullish consensus. Goldman Sachs’ previously released uranium supply and demand model indicates that based on global new reactor announcements and supply-side estimates, the cumulative net shortage from 2025 to 2045 has been revised up to 211 million pounds, highlighting significant long-term supply pressure.

Uranium Price: Upward Trend Agreed Upon, Long-term Contract Prices Expected to Rise

Most participants expected uranium prices to stay on an upward trajectory.

The core logic behind this judgment lies in the restart of existing reactors, lifetime extensions, power upgrades, and ongoing construction of new units, which together form a robust foundation for demand, while newly available supply remains limited.

Spot prices may fluctuate in the short term, but market focus is on the pace at which utilities sign replenishment contracts—currently, contract volumes have not yet reached or surpassed replacement levels, sustaining price support.

Cameco, one of the world’s largest uranium fuel suppliers, said at the seminar that the median uranium price implied in their contracts is around $120 per pound, and referencing the floor and ceiling price range, long-term contract prices are expected to continue a moderate upward trend.

AP1000 Large Reactor: Supply Chain Mobilization Expected to Start in 2026

Regarding the commercialization of Westinghouse’s AP1000 large reactor, the seminar provided a fairly clear timeline expectation.

According to statements from Westinghouse and others, AP1000 orders are expected to materialize in 2026, with Poland and Bulgaria considered the most feasible near-term market opportunities.

In the U.S. market, the industry focus remains on establishing a domestic supply chain to support future Final Investment Decisions (FID).

Cameco stated it currently has the capacity to support building four AP1000 reactors per year, and could expand to 20 per year within five years. Supply chain companies CW and MIR both said that whether for traditional reactors or near-commercial small modular reactors (SMRs), the supply chain is now prepared to handle increased activity.

Regulatory Environment: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accelerates Obstacle Removal

Positive regulatory signals were a key theme of the seminar.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) clearly stated its commitment to eliminating institutional barriers to nuclear development, including measures such as simplifying approval processes, removing legacy requirements rendered obsolete by technological advances, and reducing friction in areas with minimal impact on reactor safety to improve overall efficiency.

At the same time, the NRC is actively expanding license approval pathways to give emerging technologies greater flexibility and is working to reduce compliance costs for applicants. This regulatory direction aligns with the current administration’s policy stance in support of nuclear power development.

Utility Companies: Federal Support is the Primary Prerequisite for New Nuclear Construction

Utility companies are cautious about new nuclear construction, and federal support is seen as an indispensable risk buffer.

Southern Company, owner of Georgia nuclear plants, and Duke Energy, the largest U.S. electric utility, both emphasized in the seminar that new nuclear power faces considerable risks in terms of cost, construction, and credit, and federal support is crucial for project realization.

Regarding the choice between SMR and AP1000, both companies are unwilling to take on the “first-of-its-kind” risk, and AP1000’s relatively mature technology pathway shows stronger appeal—DUK already has certain licensing and approval groundwork, and SO has recent actual experience in building AP1000. Additionally, SO holds a conservative view on the possibility of ultra-large tech companies independently taking on nuclear construction risk.

From a broader perspective, surging power demand from AI data centers, manufacturing reshoring, and the trend of economic electrification together form the long-term driver for nuclear power demand. Goldman Sachs’ previous calculation of a cumulative uranium supply net gap of 211 million pounds from 2025 to 2045 confirms the structural nature of the supply–demand imbalance and provides quantitative support for the long-term upward logic of uranium prices and related assets.

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