Goldman Sachs Outlook for Greater China Technology Trends in 2026: ASICs Become the Core Driver of AI Server Growth, Optical Modules Move Toward 1.6T, Apple Supply Chain Leads in Smartphones.......

Goldman Sachs Outlook for Greater China Technology Trends in 2026: ASICs Become the Core Driver of AI Server Growth, Optical Modules Move Toward 1.6T, Apple Supply Chain Leads in Smartphones.......

Recently, Goldman Sachs released its research report "Greater China Technology Industry Outlook 2026." Focusing on three major themes—AI infrastructure upgrades, innovation in consumer electronics, and localization of semiconductors—the report systematically reviews the top ten technology trends most worthy of attention in 2026, and points out that the increased penetration of ASIC AI servers and changes in the iPhone form factor will become the core drivers of industry chain growth.

According to Wind Chasing Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs believes that the technology industry in 2026 will show clear structural differentiation: AI-related infrastructure, advanced process semiconductors, and the Apple industry chain are expected to maintain medium-to-high speed growth, while traditional PCs, some telecoms, and packaging/testing segments may face growth slowdown. Investment opportunities will come more from niche tracks and supply-demand mismatches, rather than overall industry beta.

Within Greater China, Goldman Sachs is particularly optimistic about AI servers, optical modules, cooling systems, advanced PCBs, semiconductor equipment and materials, and the high-end mobile phone supply chain revolving around the foldable iPhone, while maintaining a positive outlook on leading companies with technical barriers and scale advantages.

I. AI Servers Enter Platform Diversification Stage, ASIC Becomes Core Driver

Goldman Sachs believes that by 2026, AI servers will transition from a single GPU-dominated stage to one of parallel development between GPUs and ASICs. As cloud providers and major tech companies continue to raise their requirements for compute efficiency, energy consumption, and total cost of ownership, ASIC solutions are increasingly demonstrating advantages in specific training and inference scenarios.

The report points out that by 2026, ASIC penetration in AI servers will significantly improve, with rack-level AI server shipments growing rapidly, driving server architecture toward higher integration and power density. This change not only increases the overall value of the servers, but also sharply elevates demand for high-speed interconnect, cooling, and power systems.

II. High-Speed Optical Interconnect Continuously Evolves, 800G to 1.6T Transition Becomes a Definite Trend

With the continuous expansion of computing power, the interconnection capabilities within and between data centers are becoming key factors restricting the efficiency of AI clusters. Goldman Sachs points out that AI servers are expanding from node-level to rack-level and cluster-level, raising requirements for bandwidth, latency, and energy consumption, which pushes network architecture upgrades from 400G to 800G and even 1.6T.

Meanwhile, new technology paths such as silicon photonics and CPO are gradually maturing, setting the stage for high-speed optical modules to scale in 2026. Optical interconnect has shifted from a "supporting role" to a core component of AI infrastructure.

III. Cooling System Technology Upgrade, Liquid Cooling Penetration Continues to Rise

As single server power consumption and computing density continue to climb, traditional air-cooling solutions are approaching their physical limits. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the adoption of liquid cooling solutions in ASIC AI servers will increase markedly in 2026, evolving from early local applications to more systematic, comprehensive solutions.

Liquid cooling not only improves cooling efficiency, but also raises higher requirements for server structure, power system, and maintenance methods, turning cooling systems from a cost item into a technical barrier. This leads to a systematic increase in the value contributed by cooling systems per server.

IV. Server ODM Structure Stabilizes, Platform Capability Determines Long-Term Competitiveness

The growing complexity of AI servers is deepening client reliance on ODM vendors. Goldman Sachs believes future competitive advantage will no longer stem from cost control alone, but from multi-chip platform adaptation, rapid delivery capability, and production capacity allocation in the geopolitical context.

ODMs with advanced manufacturing capabilities and long-term, deep service for cloud providers will continue to dominate AI server orders, while participation space for small and medium vendors will be relatively limited, and industry concentration is expected to further increase.

V. PC Industry Growth Momentum Slows, Structural Differentiation Intensifies

Goldman Sachs expects the global PC market overall to still face growth pressure in 2026. The replacement cycle driven by COVID-related demand and operating system upgrades is gradually ending, while rising memory prices on the cost side are also constraining terminal demand.

While the AI PC concept offers functional differentiation, its overall impact on sales growth is mild. Under this circumstance, leading manufacturers with brand advantage, scale effect, and channel control will show stronger resilience in profitability, while the low-end and white-label markets will face more pressure.

VI. iPhone Enters Continuous Form Innovation Cycle, Foldable Model is Key Variable

Goldman Sachs views changes in iPhone form factors as one of the most important catalysts in the consumer electronics sector in 2026. From ultra-thin design to foldable forms and future anniversary models, continuous visual and structural innovation is expected to reshape user upgrade logic.

Historically, significant changes in the iPhone form have often led to noticeable upticks in replacement demand. A foldable iPhone not only raises the unit price but also imposes higher requirements on the display, structural components, battery, and precision manufacturing. Goldman Sachs expects that under the base case, the foldable iPhone will bring significant increments to high-end components and precision manufacturing sectors.

VII. Smartphone Market Moderately Recovers, High-End and AI Features Drive Upgrades

Overall, smartphone shipments are unlikely to return to high-growth eras, but the product mix is changing profoundly. Goldman Sachs believes the increase in high-end models and foldable screen penetration will become the main sources of industry growth.

Meanwhile, the enhancement of local AI capabilities is changing user experience logic. AI phones are no longer just hardware parameter upgrades, but are seeing systematic optimization for imaging, interaction, and efficiency scenarios—helping improve user retention and product lifecycle, thereby supporting demand for high-end products.

VIII. Tight Supply and Demand for High-End PCB and CCL, AI Drives Long-Term Prosperity

AI servers and high-end consumer electronics are demanding higher specifications for PCBs and copper clad laminates (CCL), causing high-end capacity expansion to lag behind demand growth. Goldman Sachs points out that as material grades upgrade from M7/M8 to higher specs, expansion faces both technical and capital constraints. Limited supply and continuous demand growth give high-end PCB and CCL industries stronger bargaining power, with price and profitability potential in the medium term.

IX. Domestic Semiconductors Enter Acceleration Stage, AI and Localization Resonate

Goldman Sachs is more structurally positive on China’s domestic semiconductor industry. As AI computing demand spreads from cloud to edge and industry applications, local demand for compute, storage, and accompanying chips continues to grow, providing more realistic and sustainable scenarios for domestic semiconductor companies.

Meanwhile, concerns for supply chain security and cost efficiency have notably improved downstream clients’ acceptance of domestic chips, equipment, and materials. Goldman Sachs believes this shift is gradually moving from "policy-driven" to "business-driven," with faster order verification cycles, helping local vendors achieve positive feedback in processing, yield, and product iteration, and propelling China’s semiconductor industry into a more endogenous acceleration phase.

X. Autonomous Driving and Low Earth Orbit Satellites Open Medium- to Long-Term Growth Space

In addition to AI and consumer electronics with higher short-term certainty, Goldman Sachs also pays attention to emerging fields with strong long-term growth curves. The rollout of Level 4 autonomous driving in Robotaxi and urban NOA scenarios will continue to drive demand for chips, sensors, and system integration.

At the same time, low earth orbit satellites are entering an intensive launch and the initial stage of commercialization, with telecommunications standard upgrades and renewal cycles starting, which may form a new technology investment main track in the medium to long term.

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The above highlights are from Wind Chasing Trading Desk.

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