Goldman Sachs raises short-term oil price targets again: Brent at $100 in March, $85 in April.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz combined with the impacts of the Middle East conflict is causing shocks; Goldman Sachs predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in March will break into triple digits, but also warns that prices may gradually fall in the second half of the year.

According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs said on Friday (March 13) that due to the Iran war, damage to Middle East energy infrastructure, and disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, it expects the average price of Brent crude oil in March to exceed $100 per barrel, with the April average falling back to $85 per barrel.

Although short-term oil prices are under upward pressure, Goldman Sachs remains relatively cautious about the full-year price trend. If disruptions in oil flows do not further worsen, it expects Brent crude oil prices to gradually fall to the low range of $70 per barrel during the year.

As of press time, Brent crude oil futures were quoted at $100.13 per barrel, with a cumulative weekly gain of about 8%. On Monday, oil prices touched $119.50 per barrel during trading, reaching the highest level since mid-2022. Market volatility has significantly increased due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rising concerns about energy supply disruptions.

Short-term high, a downward trend in the second half of the year

Goldman Sachs pointed out on Friday that since the United States and Israel launched war against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed. This waterway carries about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas, and any disruption creates direct and far-reaching impacts on the global energy market.

According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, if the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz lasts for two months, Brent crude may surge to $93 per barrel, which is more than 30% higher than the benchmark target price of $71.

Analysis indicates that this scenario reveals the potential upward pressure on oil prices stemming from current geopolitical risks.

Although short-term oil prices are under upward pressure, Goldman Sachs is relatively cautious about the full-year price trend. The bank expects that, if disruptions in oil flows do not further worsen, Brent crude oil prices will gradually fall to the low range of $70 per barrel during the year.

However, Goldman Sachs also warns of the upside risk: If supply disruptions last longer than expected, oil prices might reach higher peaks and remain at elevated levels by year-end.

This is Goldman Sachs’ latest move to consecutively raise its oil price forecasts recently.

On Thursday (March 12), the bank just raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $66 per barrel to $71 per barrel. It also simultaneously raised its forecast for WTI crude oil's fourth quarter average price—from $62 per barrel to $67 per barrel, matching the adjustment magnitude of Brent crude.

According to a WallstreetCN article, Goldman Sachs previously indicated that if the flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish until late March, oil prices will be on an upward trend during this period, "until the market is convinced that the likelihood of a long-term disruption is low."

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