Goldman Sachs: Tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East oil supply recovery may be delayed.

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The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suddenly intensified, threatening the recovery process of global oil market supplies. Goldman Sachs warns that the new round of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could slow the pace of restoring Persian Gulf crude oil production to pre-war levels.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, crude oil production in the Persian Gulf in June was still about 10.5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels. Although Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have begun restarting shut-in wells over the past month, recent tanker attacks have heightened the risks of passage through the Strait, causing shippers to doubt whether they can safely cross. This has put downward pressure on oil flows through Hormuz. Brent crude futures briefly topped $80 a barrel this week, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to the situation.

On Wednesday, Trump announced that the temporary peace agreement between Washington and Tehran had ended, and the U.S. would revoke the waivers allowing Iran to export oil. However, he added that negotiations with Iran may continue. The uncertainty of the situation means the market faces two-way risks.

Oil Flows Drop to 70% of Normal Levels

Goldman Sachs estimates that following the recent tanker attacks, oil flows from the Persian Gulf have fallen to about 70% of normal levels. Previously, in the first 10 days after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, flows had once recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhetkova Grigsby and others pointed out in a July 8 report, “The recent tanker attacks highlight that transit risks remain high. With the ceasefire status still unclear, shippers may have concerns about crossing the Strait, which will suppress recent oil flows through Hormuz.”

Shipping data shows that after two consecutive days of mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran, the flow of vessels through the Strait has nearly ground to a halt, putting the previously fragile peace agreement to a severe test.

Two-Way Risk, Trend Depends on Negotiations

Goldman Sachs believes that the current risks to Persian Gulf oil flows and oil prices are not unidirectional.

If the 60-day negotiations can proceed, while all parties provide safety assurances for shippers and reinstate waivers for Iranian oil sales, oil flows through the Strait could return to normal by the end of July. Conversely, if negotiations break down and tanker attacks escalate, flows may decline further.

It is worth noting that just last month, Goldman Sachs was among the banks that cut their oil price forecasts, as Hormuz oil flows had rebounded. At that time, the same analysts also warned of a possible recurrence of oil oversupply. The recent abrupt reversal of the situation has once again cast uncertainty over supply prospects.

Trump's Statement Adds Market Uncertainty

Trump’s announcement of the end of the temporary peace agreement and the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales is one of the direct triggers for the latest market volatility. However, he also said that negotiations might continue, leaving some room for interpretation regarding how the situation will develop.

This statement has made it difficult for the market to form a clear expectation for future trends. If negotiations truly break down, the removal of waivers for Iranian oil supply—together with obstacles to passing through the Strait—will further intensify impacts on the global oil market. However, if talks resume and progress is made, the oversupply risk previously warned of by Goldman Sachs and other institutions may once again dominate market pricing.

Risk Disclaimer and Exemption ClauseThe market involves risk, and investments must be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the special investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of particular users. Users should carefully consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article is suitable for their specific circumstances. All investments are at the investor's own risk. ```