Goldman Sachs Traders Warn: Memory Chip Sector Faces Three Major Downside Risks

Goldman Sachs Japan traders have issued a warning about the recent sharp correction in tech stocks, pointing out that the memory chip and AI infrastructure sectors are facing structural pressure, rather than a simple short-term fluctuation.

According to Goldman Sachs trader Ippei Yamaura’s latest report, tech stocks last week experienced a record-breaking four-standard deviation sell-off, triggered by an initial decline in Korean memory stocks. Although Micron's earnings report briefly boosted market sentiment, the rebound did not last into Friday—as reported, OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO to 2027 and lowering its $1 trillion valuation target, further shaking market confidence.

The market impact is now clearly reflected: AI infrastructure stocks are generally under pressure, while hyperscale cloud providers and Apple have proven relatively resilient. Yamaura believes the market is beginning to price in a "peak in memory supply tightness." Meanwhile, according to China Jingwei quoting the Financial Times on the 27th, six sources revealed that to ease cost pressure from rising memory chip prices, Apple is lobbying the US government for approval to procure memory chips from Chinese semiconductor maker CXMT. If approved, this would pose a substantial challenge to Micron.

Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs has summarized the risks facing Micron and the entire memory chip sector into three points: slowing HBM price momentum, market competition from Chinese players like CXMT, and an overall abrupt slowdown in AI server investment.

OpenAI Price Cuts and IPO Uncertainty: The Fuse Igniting Market Worries

Yamaura pointed out in the report that the deep trigger for this round of tech corrections is likely OpenAI's price cut announced on June 11—a move aimed at competing with Anthropic. For investors, this means that the timeline for OpenAI's business to become self-sustaining and move away from continued burn has been pushed further out.

At the same time, OpenAI’s IPO outlook is also getting more complicated. According to media reports on June 25, OpenAI is considering delaying its listing plans, due to factors such as lukewarm market sentiment from the SpaceX IPO and uncertainty over whether the $1 trillion valuation goal can be achieved. As of the end of March this year, OpenAI’s latest valuation was $825 billion.

The deeper market logic is that price cuts and IPO delays combined bring back a familiar question: Can AI investments actually offer sufficient returns? This doubt also implies that the threats to software companies may not be as severe as previously expected, and the current pace of AI infrastructure investment is hard to sustain.

Three Major Core Risks: Goldman Sachs’ Complete Warning for Micron

Yamaura clearly outlined in the report three key downside risks for Micron and the entire memory sector:

First, slowing HBM price momentum. As industry capacity rapidly expands in the 2027–2028 financial years, the price support for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) will be tested.

Second, DRAM market share erosion. The rise of Chinese manufacturers is bringing pricing pressure. According to the Financial Times, Apple is seeking US government approval to purchase DRAM from CXMT—previously, Apple had increased iPhone prices due to rising storage costs, and now it is clearly unwilling to continue bearing these costs.

Third, an overall abrupt slowdown in AI server investment. Goldman Sachs noted that even if the US rejects Apple’s application, similar trends are happening—Qualcomm is cutting its reliance on HBM, and Nvidia is also working to reduce memory usage.

Additionally, according to the Wall Street Journal, downstream clients are actively seeking ways to lower their dependence on memory chips, although Micron still believes supply shortages will persist. Yamaura pointed out there is strong momentum for this trend to accelerate.

From Structure to Landscape: Intensified AI Competition Loosens Memory Demand Narrative

From a more macro perspective, Yamaura mentions a noteworthy market phenomenon: Chinese startups and SMEs are circumventing high AI usage fees by combining various AI models—this clearly diverges from the commercial expectations of leading platforms like OpenAI. Competition between AI models had already become fierce even before OpenAI's IPO.

All these developments point to one conclusion: Market confidence in the "continued memory supply tightness" core narrative is wavering, and the recent divergence between AI infrastructure stocks and hyperscale cloud providers is a direct manifestation of this repricing.

Strategically, Yamaura stated that given last week’s violent volatility in tech stocks, Goldman Sachs is adjusting its tactical stance to favor defensive allocations. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical risks after US action against Iran make it difficult to easily enter cyclical sectors in the short term.

Still, Goldman Sachs also highlighted a key support: the overall US economic fundamentals remain robust. For this reason, Yamaura believes that any shift to defensives or index-level selling should be seen as cyclical rather than a trend. For individual stocks, Yamaura offers clear guidance for mid-to-long-term investors: when stocks have broken momentum, prefer to buy on dips, rather than aggressively cut positions.

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