Goldman Sachs: Zimbabwe's lithium export ban unlikely to be lifted soon; lithium prices will "undoubtedly" reach new highs!

Zimbabwe unexpectedly announced a comprehensive suspension of exports of lithium concentrate and unprocessed minerals. This sudden policy shift is rapidly reshaping global supply and demand expectations and price trends in the lithium market. Goldman Sachs analyst James McGeoch stated, “Against the backdrop of already tightening fundamentals, this shock will undoubtedly push lithium prices to new highs.”

The threat of supply disruption quickly triggered intense reactions in the market. Stimulated by this news, domestic lithium carbonate futures surged up to 14%. Zimbabwe’s export shock is not only a major stress test for the global supply chain, but directly ignited Wall Street's trading enthusiasm for related assets.

Policy Shift Impacting Global Supply Chain

Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines Polite Kambamura announced that, to force mining companies to carry out substantial processing locally, the export ban takes effect immediately until further notice—including cargo already in transit.

Zimbabwe is one of Africa’s countries with the largest lithium reserves and a top global lithium producer. Its supply developments have a significant impact on the global market, especially China. According to the latest data from the US Geological Survey (USGS), Zimbabwe’s lithium production in 2024 is about 22,000 tons, accounting for roughly 9.2% of the reported global total output of 240,000 tons.

Goldman Sachs forecasts further highlight the country's strategic importance. Goldman originally expected Zimbabwe's lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) output in 2026 to reach 160,000 tons, about 10% of global supply outside China.

Goldman Sachs analyst James McGeoch noted in the report, that Zimbabwe is an important marginal supplier of spodumene, accounting for 8% of Goldman’s global supply forecast for 2026. He stressed, “The ban could only be lifted if mining companies fully comply with the Zimbabwe government's requirement for local processing.”

McGeoch also mentioned similar interventions in Africa in recent years, such as the cobalt export ban imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo in February 2025, which ultimately evolved into an export quota system by October that same year.

Lithium Prices Soar, Market Trading Heats Up Again

Even before Zimbabwe’s ban was announced, the global lithium market was already showing signs of tightening fundamentals. After the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, lithium prices at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) had climbed 10%, indicating that prices were already supported ahead of the sudden event.

After news of the export ban broke, market sentiment was instantly ignited. Domestic lithium carbonate futures prices quickly surged 14% after the announcement. Goldman’s team pointed out that recent lithium prices closed at RMB 166,000, only 13% below the RMB 190,000 high set in January this year.

“Chinese markets were buying even before the news broke. Now everyone is rushing to catch up.” McGeoch said, “Without doubt, we expect new highs will be made here.” He believes GFEX’s onshore lithium carbonate prices will continue to climb the following day.

Besides directly impacting commodity prices, Goldman also sees this event as a clear trading opportunity. McGeoch suggested investors pay attention to the GSCBGLLI index, and revealed he is closely watching small exploration companies like QTWO CN that may benefit. He pointed out, “The market already has the willingness to hold lithium assets, and this supply disruption will greatly amplify that trend.”

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